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January 18, 2008
It’s always interesting to talk to someone who knows what they are talking about.
Sobering, too.
For some time, I have been singing the praises of clean diesel and have regarded this year as a breakthrough one with the introduction of a number of mostly German models.
Then I had a chat with Allen Schaeffer, executive director of the Diesel Technology Forum, and while he is bullish on clean diesel, he is not starry-eyed about it.
As he pointed out, there is already a sizeable market in diesels in this country. Indeed, while hybrids have the ‘green’ spotlight over here, sales of diesels totaled about 480,000 vehicles last year compared to 350,000 hybrids.
“Diesels have been out there, outselling hybrids,” he said in telephone interview from Michigan on Friday. “But there have been few new (diesel) choices in the salesroom.”
That will change.
“This year, twelve auto manufacturers will make at least thirteen firm diesel model introductions and announcements, along with unveiling four future diesel concepts, in half a dozen market segments,” he wrote in his blog from the Detroit Auto Show, where nearly twenty diesel vehicles were on display.
But he said that while clean diesel might get more publicity this year, there are still substantial issues, not least of which is price.
“The price of diesel today works against consumer interest,” he said, noting it was 40 cents to 50 cents a gallon more than gasoline.
At the same time, he said diesel offers distinct advantages over hybrid technology, such as not having to worry about batteries, providing towing capacity and higher resale values.
As far as “a breakthrough” is concerned, he said there were two ways to look at it – sales and awareness. He said he thought diesel was on the crest of a substantial increase in awareness, but whether that translates into sales in the showroom remains to be seen.
“Certainly we believe that once a consumer gets behind the wheel of a new diesel, (he or she) is going to be sold on it,” he said.
And as far as diesel hybrids are concerned, he was wary. I confess that I have long thought it is an ideal combination of technologies.
Well, it may be, but as Schaeffer pointed out, it represents the combining of two premium – read expensive – power trains.
“It’s the great calculus for auto companies,” he said. “Anything is possible, they know how to make these technologies work, but what is the consumer willing to pay? What can the consumer afford?
As I said, by the end of the conversation I felt like a bit of a blagger – or someone who has been expounding on something I know less about than I thought I did!
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
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