June 20, 2008
Okay, I confess, this is a dream job.
So many of you tell me that and yesterday's visit to Lime Rock Park in Lakeville, Conn., was a good reminder that you are right.
Journal photographer Steve Szydlowski and I went to the famed race track to get an update on the $5 million makeover that is currently underway. And while we were there, we got a chance to drive a couple of race-prepped Mazda MX-5 Miatas.
Click here to view the video of a day at Lime Rock.
With the main track out of commission, we joined a number of members and would-be members of The Club at Lime Rock at the Auto Cross track in the middle of the park. This is a short track between half and three quarters of a mile long but extremely curvy.
Instructors Peter Argetsinger (son of the late Cameron Argetsinger, founder of Watkins Glen) and Brit Simon Kirkby, racing veterans with wins and championships on both sides of the Atlantic, were timing runs when we arrived.
After they had each taken a run, we broke for lunch and then returned for our runs. I squeezed into the cockpit which had been stripped of every comfort. A framework of steel piping reinforced the door, forcing me to slither into the tight bucket seat. (Getting out was also a procedure involving leveraging myself on the door and roof, NASCAR style.)
Once in, I was strapped into a four-point harness and the steering wheel was attached.
Kirkby joined me on the first few laps, pointing out how the track had been "mapped" with cones to indicate where to take the car as it entered and exited bends. He also talked me through, telling me when to accelerate and when to brake (while still going straight before I turned the wheel.)
It was exciting. The speeds do not sound impressive - 60 mph down the short straight - but when you are going through very tight curves at full speed with your bottom six inches off the ground, it seems very fast indeed.
Kirkby then told me to pull in and said we were going to change places. This was my first indication that race car driving is way beyond anything one can imagine from everyday driving. Accordingly we slithered out and slithered in and were again strapped down and off we went.
I don't think he was showing off, although it did cross my mind at first. But once we had settled - if you can call it that - into the blistering pace he set, throwing the car through beds at speeds I could not begin to come to terms with, I did comment that my tepid driving must have been driving him crazy.
No, he said. He just wanted to show me what the car could do. And what I could do.
I was just beginning to regret that lunch when he brought the car in and we again changed places. I was a completely new driver. As he had demonstrated and confirmed by talking about it, there was no way I could roll the car. The speeds were not great enough and the wide, low-slung design combined with fat racing tires provided enormous stability.
Nor could I damage myself or the car on this track as there were no barriers to hit. That was by design: it's a safe track for beginning drivers to get a sense of controlling a fast car going through very tight corners at high speed.
This time I threw the car through the corners and jammed down my foot when he urged me to, earning every so often a much appreciated "Good," and "Well done."
After three laps or so, we pulled over and I was exhausted. More than the astonishing stablity of the car, the sheer muscular strength needed to control a car going through a corner while accelerating with my foot to the floor was astonishing.
And no sooner had that curve been negotiated but I was in the middle of another one in the opposite direction. As Kirkby kept reminding me, I had to keep looking ahead to the next curve.
Three laps of that effort literally left me breathless and now it was time to do a series of timed laps by myself. I felt like an out of shape athlete staggering up to the finish line only to be told the next race started immediately.
Gritting my teeth through my exhaustion and wanting to put a good show, I set off trying to internalize the pointers of Kirkby's short lesson. Full acceleration, braking on the straight as I enter the corner, work the car round it using all my strength, accelerate out, brake again, wrestle the wheel the other way, up a short hill on the curve before hitting the accelerator full speed again to take me over the brow and another brake and curve, holding the wheel with all my strength while I went round it.
And so on through about five more corners before coming round to the short straightaway with it blast of full acceleration, and then brake and back into that first hairpin corner and off we go again.
By the end I was aching and shaking. I told Kirkby I could not imagine what it takes to keep up that kind of pressure up in a real race, lap after lap. He laughed and said race car drivers have to be very fit. No kidding.
I lost the car on one bend in the second lap, the tail spinning out before quickly recovering. But it cost me time and my final tally for the three laps was about 2 minutes and six seconds which was four seconds slower than Steve (But he has driven race cars before!).
After we had done our laps, we were each treated to a couple of laps in a new Porsche 911 Turbo courtesy of prospective club member Paul Marsala from Long Island.
Oh dear, I'm afraid I really did regret that lunch sitting in the passenger seat as he put his Porsche through its paces!
Did I mention that this job does have its drawbacks?
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth 
at 1:00 PM | Permalink
June 16, 2008
Many apologies to anyone who read a short squib about the Greenwich Concours d'Elegance in Saturday's projoCars section.
I wrote that it was taking place last weekend when in fact it had already taken place the weekend of June 7th and 8th. Thanks to Tom Fair for pointing this out.
I have no excuse other than to quote Dr. Johnson when asked by a woman why, in his famed dictionary, he had defined a pastern as the knee of a horse.
"Ignorance, madam, pure ignorance."
I sincerely hope no one was seriously put out by my exhibition of pure ignorance.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:32 AM | Permalink
June 12, 2008
There is no question about it: if you want to save gas (and money), slow down.
That’s the overriding advice on all the Web sites I went to while researching a piece for Saturday’s projoCars section on practical solutions to high gas prices.
But driving slower is not so simple as it sounds because it requires a radical change in one’s attitude toward time.
Most of us are hopeless managers of time. And that’s an odd thing when you think about it, because time and energy are about all we get on this good earth. (Think of money as an abstract form of time and energy.)
As a journalist, it has been my privilege to meet people from all walks of life and I have found that successful people tend to be great time managers. Their offices are neat, their affairs ordered.
The rest of us bumble along, lurching from one apparent crisis to another. I say apparent because all too often the crisis is more in the line of getting the kids to school, paying the bills, buying the groceries, doing the washing, organizing the family holiday, worrying about gas prices … well, the list goes on and on. And on.
The net result is that most of us are often in a hurry. And when you are in a hurry, it’s mighty hard to cruise along in the middle lane at a steady 65 mph. Cruising along is the last thing on our minds.
But if we want to save gas (and money) by developing good driving habits, they start long before we get in the car or truck. They start with an entirely new perspective toward time and making better use of it. And that may not be a bad thing at all.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 1:56 PM | Permalink
June 4, 2008
The era of the SUV is officially over.
As if General Motors' announcement yesterday that it was closing four light truck and SUV assembly plants did not get the point across, May's auto industry sales figures sure do.
As The Detroit Free Press puts it: "America is now officially a car market."
Indeed, for the first time many years, Ford's F-Series truck did not take top spot in sales. It was nudged out by four passenger cars - yes, you guessed them - the Honda Civic, the Toyota Corolla, the Toyota Camry and the Honda Accord.
Auto industry sales overall were off 11 percent in May, but car sales were up nearly 2.5 percent compared to a decline of sales of 24 percent for light trucks and SUVs, according to the Free Press. Car sales accounted for 60 percent of new vehicles sales.
As for the Hummer, get out the shovel. It's sales were off a staggering 62 percent last month. No wonder G.M. also announced yesterday that it was mulling the sale of the unit.
Hummer's travails will be music to green ears to whom the vehicle reflected the epitome of anti-environmentalist sentiment as expressed by G.M. vice chairman Bob Lutz who says he personally thinks global warming is nonsense.
Ford again bested its Detroit rivals in car sales by posting gain of nearly 4 percent compared with drops of 14 percent at G.M. and 28 percent at Chrysler.
Meanwhile, Honda car sales were up 32 percent while Hyundai posted a 26.3% gain, Nissan was up 19 percent and Toyota was up a marginal 0.5 percent.
Times have changed. As a Brit, it always seemed to me sheer folly to ride the gravy train of low gas prices. (I thought the invasion of Iraq was sheer folly too, but what do I know?)
To heck with the environment, to heck with dependence on foreign oil! The monster vehicles that relied on low gas prices reaped massive profits for Detroit's Big Three.
But it was unsustainable. To be sure, the sudden growth in demand from the giant emerging economies in the developing was a totally new variable. But in many areas, U.S. energy and environmental policy has been out of sync with the rest of the developed world.
Now the balloon has burst, prompting what Dick Colliver, executive vice president of American Honda, described as "one of the most profound shifts in automotive buying patterns in more than a decade,"
So we are will adapting, just as G.M. is adapting. But it is certainly a painful process for consumers at the gas pumps and for dealers contemplating crowded lots and little foot traffic.
And hopefully after Jan. 20, 2009, we will rejoin the rest of the world in a coordinated effort to develop sustainable global policies.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:22 AM | Permalink
June 3, 2008
General Motors has finally seen the light.
After years of printing money on the back of trucks posing as cars, the staggering run up in gas prices over the last few months has caused the behemoth to adjust course.
In addition to announcing the closure of four plants that make SUVs and large trucks, G.M. Chairman Rick Wagoner said today the company was mulling the sale of its iconic Hummer brand, according to The New York Times.
“These prices are changing consumer behavior and changing it rapidly,” Mr. Wagoner said at a briefing before G.M.’s annual meeting in Wilmington, Del. “We don’t believe it’s a spike or a temporary shift. We believe it is, by and large, permanent.”
He said G.M. would close plants in Janesville, Wisc.; Moraine, Ohio; Oshawa, Ontario; and Toluca, Mexico by or before 2010. The company has already cut shifts at two truck plants in Michigan.
Two thoughts here.
It is common knowledge that we seldom do things we don't want to do. For years, environmentalists have rued the era of the SUV, arguing that the fuel inefficient monsters were wasteful and polluting. But with gas in the U.S. so cheap compared to most nations, who can blame consumers for wanting to drive SUVs and companies for making them given the high profit margins?
Sure the auto companies paid lip service to global warming - although G.M.'s vice chairman Bob Lutz famously once said he thought it was rubbish - but at the end of the day, corporations are in business to make money, not save the world.
But now that gas prices have moved north of $4 a gallon, SUV sales have stalled and the gas guzzling monsters are lining the lots like cordwood.
That does not make business sense.
And so G.M., like Ford before it, has cut bait and made a dramatic shift away from large vehicles. Which brings up the second point which is that the great strength of market economies is that they are able to adjust and move on, with change a constant theme.
Of course, some companies change too slowly and G.M. may indeed have ridden the SUV and small truck gravy train too long. Certainly it is a much slimmed down version of its former self.
But the moves will cut "North American production to 3.7 million vehicles from 4.2 million," according to the Times, and "add $1 billion in cost savings to an existing target of reducing costs by $5 billion by 2011."
And with increased investment in smaller vehicles, and alternative fuel vehicles like the electric Chevrolet Volt, G.M. may at last be able to turn itself around and become a leader in a field it once ruled. Certainly the financial publication Barrons thinks so, with its cover story this week simply called "Buy GM."
When it comes to the dynamism of the American market place, there is always room for redemption and rebirth.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 9:42 AM | Permalink
May 30, 2008
If you want to be happy, collect something.
I was reminded of this during a visit the other day to Ray Chevalier who lives in Glocester. Photographer Steve Szydlowski and I went to interview him about his two outstanding Ford Falcons.
Mr. Chevalier has a blue 1963-1/2 Ford Falcon Futura Hardtop and a red 1965 Ford Falcon Ranchero which is truly a champion, having won a number of awards from the prestigious Antique Automobile Club of America.
But the Ranchero is a recent addition. He has had the Futura, which used to belong to his mother-in-law, for years, and the rear wall of his garage is lined with trophies he has won with the car - more than he can count, although he said his granddaughter claims there are 250. The award for the Ranchero were in the house.
Point is, Mr. Chevalier seems a happy man. “It’s what I do,” he said of his hobby. “Others play golf, I do this.”
It reminded me of the Rhode Island Hot Wheels Club expo that I wrote about last year. My interest in the assignment was spurred when I discovered during my research that a Hot Wheels purple VW bus with a yellow plastic surfboard – the Beach Bomb – had sold at auction for $72,000.
And when I got to the show, I was really impressed by everyone's enthusiasm. Grown men collecting toy cars? Yes, and happy men too.
It got me to thinking that many a psychotherapist’s couch could be vacated by patients who instead get out of themselves by taking up a hobby like collecting. Collecting anything. I write about people who collect cars, big and small, old and new, expensive and cheap. And they are for the most part very happy people.
Indeed, I am often asked about the best cars on the market for this-and-that budget, and while I have some knowledge of the car business, I often reply by saying that my knowledge is limited because I don’t so much write about cars as I write about the people who own them.
In short, I write love stories.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:58 AM | Permalink
I have no idea.
Gas prices traditionally spike upward ahead of the summer driving season as refineries shift their production runs from heating oil to gasoline, and level off after the Memorial Day weekend.
In addition, the recent run-up in prices to more than $4.00 a gallon has forced people to cut back, with overall driving down this past weekend for the first time in years.
And crude oil prices have fallen off from last week’s highs of $135 a barrel to the mid-$120s, although they are edging back up today.
But the drop may have wrung some of the speculative dollars out of the price, although no one knows what percentage of the run-up is due to speculation.
As to whether gas prices have peaked, maybe someone will emerge at the end of the year having made millions/billions of dollars by betting the right way – just as hedge fund manager John Paulson made a whopping $3.7 billion last year by betting subprime mortgage securities would fail.
But the operative word is betting, and for all the billions Paulson made, there were plenty of ‘smart’ losers who bet the other way. Remember all the billion-dollar write-offs at the beginning of the year?
Personally, I think high gas prices are here to stay. Certainly that’s the way I would bet if I could afford to buy a new car!
But what do I know?
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:06 AM | Permalink
May 28, 2008
Lamborghini Gallardo
Dick Tuck writes to my blog about the discrepancy between my comments printed in last Sunday’s projoCars section on the decision by the Interior Department to declare the polar bear threatened and the cover story about the 360 horsepower 2008 Pontiac G8 GT.
Mr Tuck is right to point this out, and all I can say is that I have no say on what we choose to run on our cover, in this case a test drive by Larry Printz of The Virginian-Pilot.
Mr Tuck goes on to accuse me of hypocrisy in accusing George W. Bush of making polar bears “swim for it.” Actually, the Interior Department seems to be trying to save the bear, but it’s best not to think of such things.
However, Mr. Tuck is again right in calling me a hypocrite. I cannot help it. I am a Brit and, as everybody knows, hypocrisy is the great British vice. I suppose it’s the price of a social tyranny!
So I will add fuel to Mr. Tuck's fire of indignation by admitting to an act of gross hypocrisy that I committed on Memorial Day – that of taking a bright yellow Lamborghini Gallardo out for a spin.
What defense can I muster given my green proclivities? I mean to say, the Gallardo, with its 520 horsepower 5 liter V10 engine, 0-to-60 mph in 4.2 seconds and top speed of 200 mph, gets a combined 13 miles to the gallon! And it makes a lot of noise.
But what a noise! Something between a growl and a cackle that says just one thing: POWER! And all clothed in an apparition of design.
Forgive me, Mr. Tuck, when I admit that driving such a car over the bridge from Newport to Jamestown and back again on a glorious sunny day with the sail boats below like puffs of cotton on Narragansett Bay – well, you see what I mean, don’t you? I get positively rhapsodic!
What explanation can I offer? That it was research for an article I am writing about The Otto Club of Boston that leases out such cars to club members? No, I cannot pass the buck.
Driving a Lamborghini is the ultimate fantasy and given the chance, I took it. And I took along my 14-year old stepson Pat, who is a car nut, and at one point during the drive he said simply: “This is heaven!”
And it was.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:21 AM | Permalink
May 22, 2008
The fortunes of the polar bear could well become the ultimate symbol of our thirst for oil.
With the Bush administration, which is not known to be pro-environment when oil industry interests are at stake, declaring the polar bear a threatened species, you got to figure it really is threatened.
But Alaska is now suing to challenge the ruling, according to the Associated Press.
Republican Governor Sarah Palin said the studies that predict the loss of sea ice which the bears need to hunt for seals are unreliable.
At issue is the possible loss of “oil and gas development in prime polar bear habitat off the state’s northern and northwestern coasts.”
The Department of the Interior last week declared the polar bear threatened based on three findings, according to Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne:
"First, sea ice is vital to polar bear survival. Second, the polar bear’s sea-ice habitat has dramatically melted in recent decades. Third, computer models suggest sea ice is likely to further recede in the future."
So, will sentiment for one of the most significant animals in the world triumph over oil and gas interests in Alaska?
Frankly, it is hard to see how Alaska can overturn the Bush administration in one of its few nods to the problem of global warming.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 4:13 PM | Permalink
May 20, 2008
Gollee!
I just filled up my car with regular at $3.96 a gallon.
And by the way, that includes that 9/10ths of a cent the gas companies add on in tiny numbers at the end of their prices.
I guess they hope you won’t notice that little bit of extra money they are putting in their pockets.
The total bill was $76 for 19.2 gallons.
It was actually a little surreal. I had just started filling it up when I noticed the price and assumed I had pressed the wrong button and was filling up with premium.
Right button - premium was $4.15 a gallon! Oh, excuse me, make that $4.16 a gallon – I almost forget that 9/10ths of a cent.
And with the price of oil now over $129 a barrel, prices are not going down any time soon.
But you know what? I think there is a bright side to this. Yes, it’s painful for all of us. The price of oil affects everything and this dramatic increase over the last few months means a readjustment of our spending habits, especially our driving habits.
But necessity is the mother of invention and I do not think we are going to sit around and cry about this massive change in our lives. Instead it is going to prompt all sorts of changes which for the most part are already on our doorstep.
For while we have paid lip service to freeing ourselves from dependence on foreign oil, most of the work to develop alternate fuels has been driven by concern about the environment and the ever more stringent laws to reduce emissions.
I have written for some time about the new diesels which are on the verge of arriving from Europe, starting with Volkswagen’s Jetta sedan and wagon. And I confess I have been in love with the Jetta diesel sport wagon since I first saw it at the New York Auto Show last year.
It will be available in the late summer I believe and I am sure it’s going to be a big success. It’s fast, economical and green – and good looking to boot!
Mercedes is going the further mile and coming out with a diesel hybrid in the fairly near future and that to me is the ultimate make-sense car. Electric around town and clean diesel on the highway – the best of both worlds and probably a big part of our future.
Certainly it is getting harder and harder to justify my gas guzzling Volvo station wagon. Not at these prices.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:29 AM | Permalink
May 16, 2008
Oil prices are now over $127 a barrel, gas prices are fast approaching $4.00 a gallon ($2.79 in Jamestown Thursday evening) but George W. Bush was unable to convince Saudi Arabia to increase oil production when he met with King Abdullah on Friday.
So prices are expected to keep going up (although some see a bubble of speculative buying causing a drop at some point) with Goldman Sachs revising its forecast from $107 to $141 a barrel for the second half of the year. It had earlier talked about $150 to $200 a barrel.
The surge in energy prices is certainly spelling an end to the era of cheap oil. When I covered the industry in New York in the early 1980s, it was all about supply. OPEC was the name of the game and every meeting of the oil ministers held the potential of an immediate increase or decrease in the price of oil depending on whether they decided to up, hold or lower production.
Today the name of the game is demand, especially from the growing mega economies like China and India.
But the serendipitous silver lining to this cloud of smog is that it is forcing us to economize and find alternative sources of energy just as concern over global warming is getting ever more serious.
Indeed, just this week, the Interior Department declared the polar bear a threatened species because of the loss of Arctic sea ice.
GM has apparently gotten the message, with a new advertising campaign focusing on its smaller cars, according to thecarconnection.com citing a report in the Detroit News. Apparently, the company had been “holding out hope that U.S. truck sales would rebound.” Yes, and I expect to win the lottery.
And then there was this story from The New York Times about old fashioned gasoline pumps being unable to register a price of more than $3.99 on their dials – or a sale more than $99.99.
It said there are about 8,500 service stations out of the nation’s total of 170,000 that are equipped with these old pumps. Unfortunately, such stations tend to be Mom-and-Pop operations that cannot afford to upgrade or replace them.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 1:50 PM | Permalink
May 12, 2008
Oh for the days of yore when gas was affordable!
Was it just over a fortnight ago that I wrote about getting sticker shock at my local gas station when the price was $3.52 a gallon for regular?
Now it’s $3.75!
And I got another shock last Friday when my American Express bill arrived and found I had spent $400 on gas last month.
Certainly I probably drive more than the average noodle – from Jamestown to Providence and back every day for starters – but that number sure set me back a bit.
In fact, it sent me to the kitchen table with pencil and paper to look over my spending patterns – and I bet there are plenty of you out there doing the same thing.
In my case, it was not a pretty picture, not disastrous, but certainly undisciplined enough wake me up and decide on some changes.
Obviously one immediate step would be to trade in my Volvo station wagon for a smaller, lighter, more fuel efficient car. But I hesitate. With a 5-year-old, I am concerned about safety and know that with him strapped into the jump-seat on the armrest in the middle of the rear seats, he is as safe as he can possibly be. And he likes looking straight out through the gap in the front seats.
If Volvo EVER got its act together and brought over a clean diesel or hybrid, I would be first in line.
(C’mon Ford, we Volvo owners are typically green, liberal and Democratic – and proud of it! Come out with a super-green car and we’d be standing in line around the block.
Instead we have the new XC70 which I mused over the other day until I got to the sticker and saw it gets a combined 17 miles to the gallon. Forgeddaboudit!)
So I will stay with my station wagon with 130,000 miles on it because I frankly cannot afford to get into a new car right now anyway. But I am budgeting for a change next year at the latest and it will certainly be a hybrid or clean diesel – and sadly probably not a Volvo.
But I will be making fewer trips to the big retail warehouses like Walmart, Target and Gosh Knows What. The prices in these places are SO cheap, I always leave thinking what I have saved rather than what I have spent.
Let’s face it, $50 for a $100 bag of stuff I don’t really need is still $50 out of my pocket for a bag of stuff I do not need – and I am congratulating myself for my financial acumen!
Am I a dope or are these halls of consumer delight just brilliant at what they do? Both!
- Peter C.T. Elsworth, pelsworth@projo.com
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:33 AM | Permalink
May 8, 2008
So we all dressed up last Sunday for a Kentucky Derby party and placed our bets based more on sentiment (the ladies favored the one filly Eight Belles) and semantics (Bob Black Jack was a favorite) than any knowledge of the horses.
And we drank mint julips and were amusing in a fragrant way. And after an hour or so, we watched the race and were delighted or disappointed depending on our level of interest and the extent of our bets.
And then we were horrified when Eight Belles, who came in second, had to be destroyed after collapsing with two broken ankles.
The accident highlights the trend in modern horseracing to produce horses than can bring in trophies for a limited time before being retired to the breeding sheds. Such an emphasis on speed per se has resulted in horses that are often inordinately fragile.
At the same time, public interest in horse racing has been declining for decades and for a very simple reason: Horses are not part of our everyday lives any more.
Before the automobile, our lives were intertwined with the horse. We all rode or drove/were driven in carriages/carts/wagons and so everyone was interested in horse racing. But just over 100 years ago, the horseless carriage made its appearance and now dominates our lives.
So it’s hardly surprising that as horse racing has slumped in popularity, interest in auto racing, especially NASCAR, Formula One and drag racing has soared. Let’s face it, NASCAR racing is basically a flow of traffic – and we can all identity with that – but at 180 mph.
And we’d all love to drive at 180 mph on our daily commutes!
To be sure, interest in horse racing was sparked by such great horses as Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed. But Affirmed was the last Triple Crown winner and that was back in 1978.
Every year, we are treated to breathless speculation about the Triple Crown as the winner of the Kentucky Derby moves on to the Preakness Stakes in Maryland and the Belmont Stakes in New York.
But just as interest can be sparked by great horses running great races, it can be turned off by horrible accidents such as the one that brought down Barbaro a couple of years ago when he shattered his leg at the Preakness and had to be destroyed after lengthy rehabilitation proved fruitless.
And the revolting spectacle of Eight Belles floundering on the ground with two broken front ankles is certainly not going to attract the casual fan who dresses up but once a year to have a flutter on the horses.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:51 AM | Permalink
Reflecting the dismal state of the current auto market, Toyota is projecting its sales will be down 27 percent this year, according to the Associated Press.
That’s very sobering news for the auto industry.
As Detroit’s Big Three have struggled for years to retain market share, the Asian manufacturers – including Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Hyundai, Subaru – have been growing in reputation and sales.
Apart from being lumbered with millions and millions of dollars in healthcare and pension liabilities, the Big Three seemed incapable of coming up with designs that either excited or provided assurance of reliability.
Toyota and Honda in particular have been brilliant in building a franchise that now rests on very solid reputations for reliability which is, not surprisingly, what the vast majority of people want.
Now Toyota, which has been recently tussling with General Motors over who is the king of the castle in terms of sales, is predicting a serious downturn in sales and sees overall U.S. auto sales at about 14.7 million vehicles this year.
That’s way down from recent years and the company cited the faltering U.S. economy, high energy costs, a flat domestic market and the weak dollar for its woes.
Toyota’s announcement is very sobering given that it seems ideally placed with its fuel efficient Corolla and Prius hybrid in a world of soaring gas prices.
Certainly the company put on a brave face.
"We are facing a severe business environment," President Katsuaki Watanabe was quoted as saying. "Toyota considers this headwind as a valuable opportunity to turn it into a more flexible and stronger company."
Given that this is a superbly well run company, it is likely to emerge stronger and better positioned for the brave new world we are entering as developing economies start to roll – including the mega-ones in China and India – oil prices soar, misguided adventures such as George Bush’s War in Iraq keep Mideast politics raw and the global environment changes before our eyes.
But for the short term, the news is just more evidence of the big downturn in the U.S./world economy and right now there is no light at the end of the tunnel.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:07 AM | Permalink
May 2, 2008
The writing is off the wall and on the page.
I just hope presidential hopefuls Senators Hillary Clinton and John McCain get to read it. Their proposal to suspend the federal excise tax on gasoline this summer sends confusing signals about U.S. energy policy to both consumers and manufacturers.
The facts are these: Auto industry sales in April were down to an annualized rate of fewer than 14.5 million vehicles, according to Autodata, mainly due to a big drop in gas-guzzling pickup truck and SUV sales.
That hit Detroit’s Big Three especially hard. General Motors’ sales were off 16.2 percent compared with last April, while Ford’s were down 12.1 percent and Chrysler’s off 23.5 percent.
The top three Asian manufacturers – who missed the boom in truck and SUV sales during the 1990s – reported sales increases: Toyota up 3.4 percent while Honda and Nissan were both up six percent.
In fact, sales of small, fuel efficient cars were up quite dramatically, largely due to rising gas prices. Gasoline may not consume a major part of the average family’s budget, but you sure know what you pay at the pumps each week and regular is now running at about $3.60 a gallon.
Sales of Ford’s Focus, for example, were up 43.5 percent; Ford recently upped production of the car by 30 percent. Meanwhile, its SUV sales were off 36 percent.
Likewise, sales of Toyota’s Yaris were up by 46 percent while truck and SUV sales were off 12 percent.
Nor can we reasonably expect gas prices to come down anytime soon. U.S. demand is increasing as the summer driving season approaches and the price of oil is now well over $100 a barrel, with the new benchmark around $120. That’s due in part to the weak dollar but more importantly to the soaring demand from the fast-growing economies in mega-nations like China and India.
Unfortunately, the proposal by Senators Clinton and McCain to suspend the 18.4 cent federal excise tax on gasoline would make it cheaper to fill up, but goes against all the "energy saving/independence from foreign sources of oil/addiction to cheap oil" arguments we have been hearing lo these many years.
It also goes against the intent of the new mileage standards outlined by the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (35.7 miles per gallon by 2015) just last month.
Indeed, it is interesting that many in the auto industry itself are coming out against the idea, with Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli arguing it would affect sales of small fuel efficient vehicles, and giant auto dealer Autonation CEO Mike Jackson telling the Detroit Free Press it gives confusing signals.
These are sobering times, with prices rising on everything from gas to food and a slowing economy forcing everyone to take stock of their personal and business finances. Let alone the ongoing emotional and financial drain of George Bush's War in Iraq.
As much as we all might welcome paying less at the pump, it is not the time to sacrifice the long term interests of the nation by pandering to the immediate gratification of cheaper gas prices this summer.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 3:13 PM | Permalink
April 30, 2008
My sister always refers to it as "the truck gene." Having raised a daughter and a son, she observed that little boys seem to have a special gene that makes them want to play with trucks once they reach a certain age.
Now it seems there may be scientific evidence to support her theory, according to New Scientist. Researchers at the Yerkes National Primate Research Center in Atlanta, Georgia, found that male rhesus monkeys preferred playing with cars.
The researchers studied 11 male and 23 female rhesus monkeys and found that in general the males preferred to play with wheeled toys, such as dumper trucks, over plush dolls, while female monkeys played with both kinds of toys.
So it seems that when it comes to cars, nature rules. (Unless my nephew is a monkey!)
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 1:38 PM | Permalink
April 29, 2008
Along with the greening of the trees and the trilling of the peepers, a sure sign of spring is the sound of other people's car stereos.
The warmer weather allows everyone to open their sunroofs and lower their windows and provide concerts for fellow drivers as they draw up to the traffic lights. It's a delightful custom, the only snag being that the concert being played next to you may not reflect your taste in music.
Sadly this happens to me all too often, and I think it most unfair. Instead of listening to a favorite composer or blues singer, I get something else altogether. Maybe there should be postings identifying the times and places of concerts and the nature of the music.
And then again, maybe I should become an impressario by playing my favorites at top volume with all the windows down. My taste in music is, after all, exemplary and playing it loud would be a treat for everyone.
Indeed, I would be admired far and wide for my selections and people would follow me in the hope of catching strains of my favorites. Children would wonder, men would gap in admiration, women in adoration.
Or would they? No, I think they would sigh in exasperation and roll up their windows, put on the AC and play their own music to themselves.
But please don't let such a possibility stop you from treating the rest of us poor noodles to your musical excretions at top volume. They are sure to be quite delightful!
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 1:29 PM | Permalink
April 24, 2008
Ford is stepping out of the gloom that has recently overshadowed Detroit's Big Three.
While Chrysler fumbles into a new era of high gas prices without a B-car to its name and General Motors slips to Number 2 behind Toyota, Ford comes in with a profit of $100 million in the first quarter on sales of $43.5 billion.
Sales include those of Jaguar and Land Rover which it recently sold to Tata Motors of India; if those sales are not included, revenues were $39.4 billion.
These numbers compare with a loss of $282 million on sales of $43.0 billion in the first quarter of last year.
That's impressive and real good news for a change.
I recently profiled Rhode Island's two Ford dealerships - Mike Flood's Flood Auto Group in East Greenwich, Narragansett and Wakefield, and the Tasca Auto Group in Cranston and Seekonk. (And I apologize to the Tasca family, whose association with Ford goes back 65 years. Their profile, which appeared in yesterday's paper included a group photo which did not identify them by name. That was a mistake that slipped through the editorial process.)
But in both profiles, I said that Ford seemed to be on a roll in a difficult economic climate, noting that sales of such vehicles as its Edge, Focus, Fusion were holding their own. Indeed, the company recently upped the production of its Focus by 30 percent.
As it happens, The Wall Street Journal profiled Ford yesterday, and made the same point but in much greater detail. Indeed, the headline says it all: "Ford Motor Turnaround Takes Hold."
(It also said the company is mulling the sale of its Volvo unit, having recently sold its Jaguar and Land Rover units to Tata Motors of India, and is possibly dropping the Mercury brand.)
Certainly, Ford's earnings were mixed in certain areas - it posted a loss in North America on lower sales, for example, and Volvo's numbers were down. And it said that the rest of the year will be challenging.
But it reaffirmed its plan to have the turnaround substantially behind it by next year when it expects to return the whole company to profitability.
Good news indeed.
For more information on Ford's earnings, go to the story by the Associated Press.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:40 AM | Permalink
I’m coming a bit late to this, but cannot let it go by without commenting.
The New York Times’ energy correspondent, Jad Mouwad, wrote a fascinating piece about the global oil market in the Week in Review section last Sunday. It included the startling fact that the U.S. has dramatically increased its consumption of oil since 1980 while most of the developed world has actually cut back.
Much of it has been covered before, although he certainly laid out the issues in a compelling way. And he made no bones about the fact that underlying the staggering rise in oil prices over the last year is a very basic one of limited supply and soaring demand.
Yes, the weak dollar has attracted speculators. But the bottom line seems to be that the days of cheap oil are gone.
And that means a massive shift in the way we live.
To be sure, we are adapting. Those Apocalyptic twins – higher fuel prices and the threat of global warming – are already forcing us to look at smaller, more fuel efficient cars.
But when it comes to adapting, it seems we are way behind the rest of the world. Indeed, while most developed nations have cut their consumption of oil since 1980 – Denmark by 33 percent, Germany by 20 percent, France by 14 percent, Italy by 13 percent – we have increased our consumption by 21 percent. Only Britain (+2 percent) and Japan (+0.2 percent) join is on the plus side of the equation.
As Mouwad writes: “This can partly be explained by the fact that the United States has some of the lowest gasoline prices in the world, the least fuel-efficient cars on the roads, the lowest energy taxes, and the longest daily commutes of any industrialized nation. The result: about a quarter of the world’s oil goes to the United States every day, and of that, more than half goes to its cars and trucks.”
What to do? He cites cites Vaclav Smil of the University of Manitoba who suggests the following measures to cut U.S. gasoline consumption.
Smil argues that getting rid of on one in four light trucks, switching one in four vehicles to diesel and reducing distances driven 25 percent would cut consumption by about 30 percent.
Fine, except this is a free society so we cannot force anyone to sell their truck, switch to diesel or drive shorter distances.
But maybe we won’t have to. High gas prices and a growing concern for the environment are already driving Americans out of big SUVs and into small, fuel efficient vehicles.
And the trend is just beginning.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:31 AM | Permalink
April 18, 2008
There are few things worse than the carnage on the roads perpetrated by drunk drivers.
Two recent cover stories in The Providence Journal, complete with photographs, literally make my blood boil.
On April 10, the paper published a story by Paul Davis about 17-year old Sylvia Bogusz who spent months in hospital after allegedly being hit last June by Heidi Harrall who has been indicted by a grand jury. Bogusz was just starting her studies at URI while Harrall was driving with a suspended license and has been in and out of trouble with the police and the courts, according to the story.
The on April 13, the paper published Amanda Milkovits’s story about Tori Lynn Andreozzi, also 17, who was struck by a drunken driver five years ago. Andreozzi was into karate before the accident; now she cannot move most of her body. The woman who hit her, Marilyn Brownell, is four years into a 10-year prison sentence and apparently remembers little about the accident.
Both stories were accompanied by heart-breaking photographs of the young women with their devoted mothers.
Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) has been doing stellar work since it was established in 1980. But its mission “to stop drunk driving, support the victims of this violent crime and prevent underage drinking” still seems a long way off.
As MADD points out on its Web site, “an estimated 17,602 people died in alcohol-related traffic crashes (in 2006).” Certainly, the little shrines that are tended by the side of roads and highways are mute testimonies to the continued carnage.
What to do? Somehow, having a few drinks and then driving is still tolerated in a way that smoking in public is not. And that’s ironic because alcohol causes far more problems than smoking; apart from drunk driving there is the violence associated with alcohol, especially domestic violence, and its addictive qualities.
I may be extra sensitive when it comes to alcoholics. I had one too many editors who were drunks – funny and charming when things were going well, nasty and vindictive when they weren’t. And totally unpredictable.
And don’t give me that b-s about alcoholism being a disease. It may be, but the first thing is to get these people off the roads and then worry about their health. And if it takes a big stick to get them off the roads, so be it.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 3:20 PM | Permalink
There are increasing reports of serious food shortages around the world. Certainly food prices have been going up sharply everywhere, but in some countries it’s actually leading to starvation and riots.
What’s this got to do with automobiles?
Two whats. One, our old friend global warming which is causing serious shortfalls of some staple crops, particularly rice. Second, the shift to growing crops that can be used to make alternative fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel is causing reduced amounts of crops as corn and soybeans being processed for human (and animal) consumption.
It seems we are getting caught between a rock and a hard place. Indeed, ethanol has suffered a number of major setbacks recently, with one serious study concluding that the clearing of land to grown crops to make into ethanol actually contributes more to global warming than the effort warrants.
Great.
What’s the solution? It seems to me that a change in perception is occurring regarding the entire alternative fuels debate. With the side effects of ethanol coming under attack and debate, and biodiesel still in a Professor Crackpot stage of development, we are left with: Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) which is totally marginal; hydrogen which is reliant on fossil fuels to make the hydrogen; hydrogen fuel cell electric/gasoline hybrid technology which still relies on fossil fuels for both the hydrogen and the gasoline and is still many years from commercial development (if ever); plug-in electric, which is still reliant on fossil fuels to make the electricity; gasoline/electric hybrids which are here and working but rely on fossil fuels; and clean diesels, which are here but also rely on fossil fuels.
In short, the two most effective alternative fuels currently out there – gas/electric hybrids and clean diesels – are both very dependent on fossil fuels.
And for good reason. Petroleum is an incredibly efficient source of energy. Consider that one gallon of gasoline contains about the same amount of energy as a man working in a field eight hours a day, five days a week, for three weeks.
Certainly, the issue involves more than global warming and “oil dependence on the Mideast” is a very real problem – made infinitely worse by such numbskull expeditions as George Bush’s tragic escapade in Iraq.
But those nations need us perhaps as much as we need them and certainly OPEC has always been careful to straddle the line between getting what it can for its oil and making sure it did not drive so hard a bargain that it would send the oil-dependent West into an economic spiral that would drastically cut its demand for oil.
But it seems to me that instead of talking about alternative fuels, we should be focused on making our machines – particularly our vehicles – more efficient and cleaner.
Oil is not going away. It certainly is not going to be replaced by biofuels that have their own limitations and problems, let alone solar and wind which will be making some but not significant contributions for the foreseeable future.
So while we develop serious alternatives, let’s accept they are decades away and learn to live with oil by focusing on green ways of using it rather than chasing pie-in-the-sky schemes to replace it with alternatives that are either equally polluting, more expensive or inadequate - or all three.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 2:40 PM | Permalink
April 11, 2008
Everyone is talking small these days. And no surprise, given the rising price of gasoline – which hit a new record on the futures market Friday – and the general sense of unease with the economy.
“Downsizing arrives – with a vengeance” was the headline for a cover article in Automotive News which cited a big shift to small cars accelerating in March, with sales of such compacts as the Honda Fit and Ford Focus reporting gains against a general decline in sales.
“Smaller, less-thirsty, cheaper cars enjoy big sales boom” reported James Healey in USA Today, adding that they are the brightest spot in the dreary auto market. The article cited a study by J.D. Power and Associates which found more owners of small cars trading in for something similar rather than trading up.
The New York Times cited a move by auto makers to align their products with the computer industry where evolution equals smaller and smaller. It said the industry was trying to overcome the pejorative overtones of compact and subcompact.
All in all, small is once again beautiful. Remember the last time that was trendy? That was the title of economist E.F. Schumacher’s bestseller which came out in 1973 – the year of OPEC’s first oil embargo and the end of the Western World’s dominance in all things economic and political.
These are certainly very uncertain times.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 2:56 PM | Permalink
April 7, 2008
Thanks to Lenny Petrone of International Motor Group at 4657 Post Road in Warwick, we now know the identity of the Fiat that comedian Jerry Seinfeld was driving when he crashed about a week ago. It's a 1967 Fiat Dino 2.0 Coupe.
News reports - including an Associated Press story reprinted in The New York Times - had it as a 1967 Fiat BTM, but no such car exists. I'll let Lenny take up the story with his email to me:
"After a lifetime of being around imported cars, working in the field and owning an imported auto repair and sales business for over 27 years in Warwick R.I., I am very familiar with most Fiat's."
"I noticed the T.V. story a couple of days ago involving Jerry Sienfeld with a Fiat that he had just purchased. The pictures shown in the spot were of a 1967 Fiat Dino 2.0 Coupe. This model was not sold in the U.S. at that time but were imported by private individuals or importers."
"The reason this car became desirable was the fact that it was equipped with a 2.0 V-6 Ferrari engine that was also used in the Ferrari Dino a mid engine sports car. Today these cars still hold a high value in good condition."
Thanks Lenny!
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:06 AM | Permalink
April 4, 2008
So, what's up with Volkswagen and Hyundai?
With every other auto maker reporting losses in U.S. sales in March, VW comes in with a cheery 7.8 percent gain over March of last year, according to Autodata which includes sales of subsidiaries - in VW's case, those of Audi and Bentley.
And Hyundai reported a 1.9 percent gain, so it should also take a bow. Ferrari and Maserati both reported gains, but supercars hardly count as their totals are so low. Ferrari, for example, sold 163 cars in March compared with VW's 27,832 and General Motors' 280,713.
Indeed, when it comes to the big producers, the losses were nasty: GM sales were down 18.7 percent, Ford's were down 14 percent, Toyota's were off 10.3 percent, Chrysler's were down 19.4 percent, Honda's were off 3.2 percent and Nissan's were off 3.8 percent.
So what accounts for VW's success? The company said little beyond the ract that sales of its Jetta, which it described as its top sales performer, were up nearly 20 percent with Passat sales up 13 percent and New Beetle convertible sales up 14.1 percent.
Unfortunately, no relief appears to be in sight and with nearly 75 percent of Americans now believing the economy is in recession, according to a recent CNN/Opinion Research poll, folks are not going to be in a buying mood, especially for big ticket items. That, of course, feeds on itself as so many producers are dependent on the auto - and housing - industries.
So this is a time for manufacturers and dealers to gird their loins and ride it out - like many other businesses.
It would just help to know what pixie dust VW and Hyundai are sprinkling on their cars.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:43 AM | Permalink
By now you’ve probably heard the news – comedian Jerry Seinfeld narrowly escaped being seriously hurt in East Hampton, Long Island, on Saturday when he crashed his 1967 Fiat BTM after the brakes failed.
Everyone reported the news, and The New York Times printed the Associated Press story.
One problem: There is no such car as a 1967 Fiat BTM.
Indeed, the Internet is alive with bloggers asking about the car and sounding off about its non-existence. One went so far as to print all the cars that Fiat produced in 1967. They are: the Fiat 1100 R, the Fiat 125, the Fiat 125 Special Berlina, the Fiat 1500 Cabriolet, the Fiat Dino Coupe 2.0 and the Fiat Dino Spider 2.0.
A number of things spring to mind about this story. One is the happy fact that Seinfeld was not injured despite the car rolling over. Another is the reminder that old cars are old and need special attention when being taken out on the road.
Then there is the issue of a story being reported and printed with a crucial piece of information being wrong. That reflects a tendency in this profession to take other people’s reporting and editing at face value and go with their facts without perhaps asking obvious questions.
In this case, the source for the information was the town police chief and one can well imagine him getting garbled information about an old collector car from a shocked Seinfeld.
But that is not necessarily a bad thing. For it reflects the trust we have in each other in this profession. Most of us went through a hazing early in our careers when we got a fact wrong. I certainly did while working for Reuters News Agency in New York 25 years ago. I got a number wrong when British Petroleum reported its quarterly earnings and my ears are still ringing.
Finally, for me the silver lining is that the Internet immediately picked up on the mistake, with a bunch of people chiming in with their doubts and questions. So rather than castigating my profession, I prefer to be reassured that in this modern age of instant access to information, mistakes are quickly spotted and called.
The only question that remains is: What was Seinfeld driving?
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:39 AM | Permalink
April 2, 2008
Mea culpa.
Someone sent me informaiton and pictures of their red Mustang suggeting it might make for a good autobiography. It was nicknamed Rhode Island Red.
I promptly lost the envelope with the infomation inside. No excuse other than lack of cerebral activity. If it was you, please accept my apologies and resend. Thanks.
Peter Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 1:00 PM | Permalink
March 28, 2008
Chrysler, which has been scrambling to organize itself after being taken over by private Cerberus Management last year, lost a senior executive this week in a move that seems to reflect dissent at the top levels. The departure of engineering vice president Mike Donoughe was seen as a loss, according to thecarconnection.com.
In addition, the minivan market, which has long been Chrysler’s bread and butter, has fallen off, with sales down by double digits. All this against the backdrop of Consumer Reports’ poor ranking of Chysler in its annual automotive survey earlier this year.
Meanwhile, Ford finalized the sale of its Jaguar and Land Rover divisions to Tata Motors of India for $2.3 billion. But that included an agreement by Ford to inject $600 million into the two divisions’ pension funds, meaning Ford actually nets $1.7 billion.
This against the $2.5 billion Ford paid for Jaguar in 1989 and the $2.7 billion it paid for Land Rover in 2000, to say nothing of the billions it has spend on the marques since then, especially on Jaguar.
Finally, the five-week UAW strike at American Axle & Manufacturing might halt production on General Motors’s Chevy Cobalt and Pontiac G5 production lines in Lordstown, Ohio, according to Automotive News. The strike has already stopped GM’s light-truck production.
Silver lining? The weak dollar continues to play in Detroit’s favor by keeping prices of imports high.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 2:52 PM | Permalink
March 26, 2008
Most indicators of economic activity track the present or the past – what’s the Dow at, what’s the price of oil, how many vehicles sold last month, were housing starts up or down last month?
The Conference Board’s Expectations Index looks at the future.
And the latest findings are not encouraging.
The board found consumer confidence in March at its lowest level since 1973 – back when Richard Nixon was president and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries first flexed its muscle by restricting oil production, thus driving up prices.
It is hardly news that most of us are currently apprehensive about the future. What with record oil and gas prices, the economic meltdown caused by the sub-prime mortgage crisis and George Bush’s interminable war in Iraq, these are not happy times.
Unfortunately, the findings from the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center reinforce the general sense that the American consumer is pessimistic about the future - and when people are pessimistic, they do not buy big items like cars and trucks.
That’s bad for the auto makers and this week’s Automotive News says manufacturers are cutting production, laying off workers and asking suppliers to lower prices.
And it’s bad for dealers who are caught in the middle, trying to market vehicles to wary customers against a backdrop of tighter credit.
But there is one ray of light. With manufacturers and dealers keen for sales, it’s good for those consumers who can afford to get into the market as there are plenty of discounts and bargains out there.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 4:07 PM | Permalink
March 21, 2008
Mazda is certainly displaying some oomph at the New York International Auto Show this week.
The company has won kudos for its 2008 CX-9, which Motor Trend named Sport Utility of the Year, its MazdaSpeed3, which is generally rated the best value hi-performance road car, and its Mazda 2 subcompact, which was just named World Car of the Year.
Mazda is considering bringing the Mazda 2 to the U.S. in the near future, according to thecarconnection.com
Meanwhile, Mazda is showing off its show-stopping Furai concept in New York this week. The name means "Sound of the Wind," and the influence of aerodynamic styling is evident in the lines with the front sides and rear seemingly shaped by the wind.
The car not only looks seriously fast, but is armed with a 450 horsepower rotary engine. And it sits next to a real racer, the Mazda RX-8 that won the 2008 Rolex 24 Hours at Daytona.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 2:26 PM | Permalink
It was interesting to see the Lamborghinis at the New York International Auto Show last Wednesday.
That was press preview day and instead of being surrounded by ogling crowds, the Lambos and their attendant leggy models were very accessible. You could even sit in one of the two Murcielagos, for goodness sakes.
The one Gallardo remained under a wrap so tight it was impossible to see what color the car was. The Murcielagos were metallic grey.
But the fact is, they were not as exotic when exposed like that. When the show opens to the public, the entire display is fenced off with three-foot glass panels.
Inside the panels, and set six inches or so below the display floor, is a walkway for “the invited only.” Outside the panels – at last year’s show, at any rate – the crowd stands and stares, four or five deep.
And that’s as it should be. These are the ultimate dream cars, unobtainable to almost everyone and hopelessly impractical. But that’s not the point.
Lamborghini is all about image and an image is a fragile thing that is better kept at arm’s length.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:01 AM | Permalink
You really can't make it up.
While the U.S. auto industry wallows in an economic slump, with total sales this year now predicted by J.D. Power and Associates to dip below 15 million vehicles and buyouts and cutbacks rampant, General Motors announces $3 million of cash and stock bonuses to 19 of its top executives.
That's great, and just another PR blooper from GM.
Just two months ago, vice chairman Bob Lutz, whose bonus is worth about $230,000 according to The Detroit Free Press, caused a contoversy by declaring that he thought global warming was nonsense. Both he and Chairman Rick Wagoner, whose bonus is worth about $364,000, had to explain and defend the statement.
GM has had a reputation for being out of touch for a long time. The 2008 Chevy Malibu was heralded as a ray of light, a first-class car that can compete head-on with the cars that have owned that segment for years - the Honda Accord and the Toyota Camry.
And I'm sure Lutz is sincere in his much-vaunted efforts to push the plug-in Chevy Volt and that such bonuses are quite in line with corporate compensation in this country.
But they can hardly go down well in a world where most people are interested in alternative fuel vehicles for both economic and environmental reasons, and are also concerned about their family budgets in face of ramping prices on almost everything, especially fuel.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:29 AM | Permalink
March 12, 2008
Crude oil prices are down today - to around $107 a barrel.
Down, I guess, is relative.
The fact is oil prices, adjusted for inflation, are now at their highest level ever. And with those prices starting to permeate every other aspect of our lives, I think we are beginning to see a sea change in people’s attitudes toward transportation – from increased interest in smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles to trains and buses.
Yes, I know that some of the increase in the price of oil has been caused by speculators drawn by the weakness of the dollar. Better to put your dollars in oil than watch them fade away.
But underneath the froth and bubbles of the market place, the fundamentals are also changing. Demand from developing nations is exploding with the pace of economic growth in China and India totally unprecedented.
U.S. gas prices are now at record levels – like I need to tell you! And there are strong indications they could keep going up and through $4 a gallon in the near future. We are actually pretty close already.
With these prices, I think we may have finally reached a tipping point for the average consumer who is basically level headed. Witness the success of the Asian manufacturers who have grown to take on Detroit’s Big Three by producing core cars that are “reliable.” Nothing more, nothing less.
Now I am hearing more and more from people who say they are seriously looking into buying fuel efficient cars. And not only that.
Most of us are also concerned about global warming and want to combine our immediate concerns about family budgets with a desire “to do our bit” for the environment.
Automakers have responded by investing millions in alternative fuel systems, with the most significant gains being made by Toyota with hybrid electric-gas technology and Audi/Volkswagen and Mercedes with clean diesel technology.
That is why it makes my blood boil I hear that General Motors vice chairman Bob Lutz declare that he thinks “the concept of global warming” is nonsense. He told a bunch of journalists that back in January.
Such statements do great disservice to the engineers at GM who are working hard to produce alternative fuel technology and vehicles, most significantly lithium-ion batteries and the much-ballyhooed – by Mr. Lutz himself – electric Chevrolet Volt.
They also undermine GM’s reputation let alone reflect a point of view out of touch with the weight of scientific evidence. I find it is interesting that the most intemperate emails I receive are from people who believe, like the buffoonish Mr. Lutz, that global warming is a “crock of sh*t.”
Emotion, in their case, seems to trump, reason. But then, everyone is shouting at everyone else these days.
I believe companies are built by people who passionately believe in what they are doing. So it’s no surprise to me that GM has lost ground on the alternative vehicle front to the Asian and German manufacturers.
Toyota, obviously, leads the pack with its iconic best-selling hybrid, the Prius. Now Honda is planning to be selling 400,000 hybrids a year in three models in five years.
Indeed, the story of Toyota’s development of its Prius hybrid is lesson unto itself of what ails Detroit.
In 1993, President Clinton initiated the Partnership for the Next Generation of Vehicles to fund research by American manufacturers into fuel efficient vehicles. However, Toyota, excluded because it was a Japanese company, decided to go it alone. The result: By 1997 it was producing the first generation Prius. The third generation was introduced in 2003 and has become THE iconic alternative fuel vehicle.
The Partnership for the Next Generation of Vehicles? It ended in 2001 when all funding was cut by the Bush Administration.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:57 AM | Permalink
March 6, 2008
After flirting with $100 a barrel for a few weeks and then busting through a couple of weeks ago, crude oil prices now seem to be on a tear, going over $105 a barrel today.
These levels are simply incredible to anyone who spent anytime in the oil patch, as I did for the first three years of my professional life working for two leading oil industry newsletters and then helping to establish the energy desk at Reuters News Agency in New York.
We are now well beyond the all-time high of an inflation-adjusted $103.75 which was set back in 1980. The latest push is partly motivated by Wednesday's decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces 40 percent of the world's crude oil, not to increase production.
Other factors include an unexpected reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories reported by the Energy Department and speculators drawn by the falling dollar into a commodity priced in dollars.
Whatever the causes, these rising prices bode no good for the average mug on the street like you and me.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 9:53 AM | Permalink
March 4, 2008
It's hard to say whether the dismal February U.S. auto sales - down 10 perent from last year to an annualized 15.4 million - will really have an impact on Detroit's thinking, but hopefully it will.
With oil prices over $100 a barrel, gas projected to possibly hit $4 a gallon when the spring driving season starts, the collapse of the housing market - and thus collapse of pickup sales - and the credit crunch, Americans are clearly putting off big purchases for the time being.
The question is whether there has been a major change toward smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. And if so, is Detroit ready to get on the bandwagon?
Certainly, it is interesting that Ford had solid sales increases for both its Focus and Fusion models as did Chevrolet with its Cobalt and Honda with its Civic and Fit. Meanwhile sales of light trucks - Ford's F Series, Chevrolet's Silverado and Dodge's Ram - were all down.
The problem for automakers is that trucks are much more profitable than small cars. That's partly why Detroit has ridden the truck/SUV gravy train for so long. But if market conditions are seriously changing, Detroit has to move toward smaller, more fuel efficient, alternative fuel vehicles.
The only company to report a tiny increase in sales compared with last February was Honda, up only 1 percent. All the rest were down, some dramatically. General Motor's domestic sales, for example, were off about 23 percent, Ford down 16 percent, Chrysler off 17 percent, while Toyota was down 7 percent, Nissan down 3 percent and Hyundai off 14 percent.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:34 AM | Permalink
March 3, 2008
Well, it's official folks.
After bouncing through the psychological price barrier of $100 a barrel a couple of weeks ago, crude oil prices have now edged past an even more important barrier - that of around $103.75 a barrel which is the inflation-adjusted equivalent of the previous record set in early 1980.
Prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit $103.95 a barrel earlier today. Reasons for the hike include increased global demand, the weak dollar and Wednesday's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries which sets production quotas for its member states - which produce 40 percent of the world's supply of oil.
This is hardly great news for consumers and, by extension, the economy. It seems everywhere we turn, ominous signs point toward a rocky economic climate in the near future. And while gasoline takes up a fairly small percentage of the average paycheck, it is a purchase that is made week after week after week after week.
Rising gas and diesel prices thus create their own dynamic of more money being spent for the same commodity - in short, a very real perception of inflation. And with more money being spent on fueling up the car or truck, that's not only less money for other purchases but a nagging fear that everything else dependent on oil is going to become more expensive.
And "everything else dependent on oil" basically means everything else - whether it's goods made from oil - chemicals, fertilizers, plastics - or goods and services dependent on the transportation industry.
This combined with a less than vibrant economy and the credit crunch from the sub-prime mortgage debacle, it's a fair bet that large numbers of Americans will be spending their tax rebates on the last place that President Bush et al want them to be spent - on consolidating debt rather than splurging on the next best thing.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 12:25 PM | Permalink
February 29, 2008
Europe is awash with small, fuel efficient cars and vans, many of which are powered by clean diesel engines – it’s even an option for the Ford Focus. Many carry American brand names and it’s about time Detroit shared the wealth with us over here.
Ford has a fabulous range of vehicles. Its Transit Connect, which is a funky little cargo van built in Turkey, was a big hit at the Chicago Auto Show, and it is expected to import its Fiesta model in the near future, although in sedan mode only.
Ford currently offers its Focus brand in only two models in the U.S. – the 2-door coupe and 4-door sedan. In Europe it continues to market its highly successful 5-door hatchback. And it has also introduced its New Ford Focus, a makeover that includes a nifty station wagon/hatchback.
General Motors, which operates in Europe under the Opel (Germany) and Vauxhall (Britain) brand names, also designs and builds a wide range of vehicles around the world. It is bringing over its Astra and Vectra models through its Saturn division, but why it does not bring over its successful Corsa subcompact beats me.
Chrysler markets its Dodge Caliber in Europe, but offers a turbo-diesel version, and its Dodge Sprinter van might be a candidate to come to these shores.
While gasoline prices in the United States remain well below European levels, with crude oil recently rolling over the $100 a barrel mark and gas prices possibly reaching $4 a gallon in the spring, the appetite for small, fuel efficient cars can only increase.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 12:31 PM | Permalink
February 27, 2008
Love at first sight. A 1955 Citroen Deux Chevaux (2CV)
After I graduated high school in England in 1968, I went to study in France for a year. And I fell in love … with the Citroen Deux Chevaux.
Described variously as “a tin can on springs,” or the “tin snail,” the small car was an iconic feature of post-WWII France along with Gauloise cigarettes and Bridget Bardot.
My first car was a 1955 model that I bought from a Dutch student whose family had a summer house outside St. Tropez. It had a dipstick in the gas tank and window wipers that were geared to the motor and supplemented by a hand knob when the car was stationary.
It was rudimentary and romantic – as are all things at the age of 18 – and I have an affection for the 2CV that I will take to my grave.
And it seems I am not alone. A recent survey of 2,000 people carried out by the British International Auto Show found that most remembered their first car better than they remembered their first kiss, first love or 18th birthday!
Certainly, a number of the stories I write are about people who have restored their old car or their father’s/grandfather’s car, or a car that is the same model as their first car. Others just have a car they dote on, or love their work in a car-related business.
That’s why I often say to people that while I may be the auto writer here at The Providence Journal, what I really write are love stories.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:56 AM | Permalink
February 22, 2008
I would like to give GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz the benefit of doubt, but it’s hard to tally his apparent belief that global warming is a "total crock of s***" with that company’s efforts to create alternative fuel vehicles.
Lutz made the comment to reporters last month and yesterday said his beliefs are irrelevant to GM’s program to develop vehicles powered by ethanol-gas blends, and hybrid and fuel cell technology.
“It amazes me sometimes what kinds of things seem to “catch on” out there,” Lutz wrote on GM’s FastLane blog yesterday.
“An offhand comment I made recently about the concept of global warming seems to have a lot of people heated, and it’s spreading through the Internet like ragweed. But I think that the people making big deal out of it are missing the real point. My beliefs are mine and I have a right to them, just as you have a right to yours.”
Maybe. But it sure does not help GM’s reputation, especially after reporting whopping losses and losing its place as the biggest auto company to Toyota.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:08 AM | Permalink
February 21, 2008
You know when you go to the zoo and check out groups of animals – parakeets, for example – there’s always one with a bald head? Animals (and that includes us) seem to bond by picking on the weakest in the group.
So it’s ironic that of all the vehicles on the road today, the one with the bald head is that bad boy, General Motor’s Hummer.
As sentiment has moved from SUVs toward smaller vehicles in recent years due to concern about rising fuel prices and the environment, Hummer’s reputation as the embodiment of gas guzzling macho has grown.
Even though the newer, smaller versions of the Hummer – the H2 and H3 – are about as fuel efficient as any other big SUV, its mean demeanor gets it the raspberries.
So GM is trying a new marketing strategy, according to USA Today, to present the Hummer as a working vehicle rather than a suburban tank. One GM executive complained that no one criticizes a bulldozer for being a gas guzzler.
Well, no. But the problem with the Hummer, unlike the Jeep, is that it has yet to make the transition from its military heritage. The H2 and H3 may be smaller than the original H1 let alone the Army’s HUMVEE, but they still look aggressive.
The Jeep transformed itself into an iconic recreational vehicle while the Land Rover, which was originally based on the Jeep, is known as both a working vehicle and suburban status symbol.
Now the Hummer, with its limited appeal to the laid-back recreational market and a mixed reputation as a status symbol, is looking for a job.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:15 AM | Permalink
February 18, 2008
Crude oil prices have edged up almost $10 a barrel over the last week, prompted by a number of factors. They are now hovering north of $95 a barrel.
Last week it was threats from Venezuelan Supremo Hugo Chavez to cut off supplies of oil to the United States. Today it's reports that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces about 40 percent of the world's oil, is mulling a production cut.
The mercurial Chavez has since relented on his threat which was to a large extent hollow due to the limited market for Venezuelan oil.
That nation may be the fourth largest supplier of crude oil to the U.S. (about 1.2 million barrels a day last year) after Canada, Saudi Arabia and Mexico, but its oil is heavy, sulfur-rich muck which has to treated by specialized refineries mostly on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Indeed, the market for over half of Venezuela's exported crude IS the United States.
Now OPEC is making noises about possible cuts in production. The organization’s power may be a fraction of what it was in the 1970s and early 1980s, but it still carries a punch. Back then, it literally ruled the global crude oil market, actually setting prices for the then dominant crude – Saudi Arabian Light.
Those days are gone, supplanted by the spot market and the futures exchanges in London and New York, but OPEC retains enough internal discipline to maintain a strong influence on the market.
Since it came into its own in 1973, OPEC has traditionally straddled the line between getting as much for its oil without setting off dire economic consequences in the industrialized economies. It continues that tightrope act, seeking to balance its production (and therefore prices) with the health of the global economy.
The organization recently intimated that it would cut production if global supplies continued to grow. And that fit in with reports that see the U.S. economy sputtering and going into recession - if we aren't there already. Certainly, a slowdown in economic activity would lead to reduced oil demand around the world.
But only last week U.S. industrial production in Januaryt was reported to have risen in line with expectations.
In short, there are fewer signs than usual of what the future brings. Certainly the lack of any clear outcome from, or plan to engage, Islamic terrorism – the war in Iraq (pace Bush’s surge) and the growing unrest in Afghanistan and Pakistan – makes these very jittery times.
That jitteriness is shown in the quick, neurotic price moves following any reports regarding the supply and price of crude oil, the lifeblood of the industrial world.
In short, reality is anyone's guess right now - and that's the problem!
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:20 AM | Permalink
February 13, 2008
One of my father’s favorite expressions was ‘Nothing in this world is free.’
Wise words that reflect proverbial wisdom going back centuries. And words we love to forget.
Take the recent development of automakers offering car loans spread over seven years or longer. Yes, the payments are lower but as James Healey points out in USA Today, vehicles lose half their value in three years and trading one in at that time on a seven-year loan means significant debt is still outstanding.
That means people will either hold off on buying new cars or take on more debt.
Option 1 is not good for future sales and Option 2 just adds more debt onto consumers already saddled with high levels of credit card and mortgage debt.
I mean, help me out here. Are we not in the middle of a financial meltdown due in large part to “sub-prime mortgages” going belly up? Those are the house loans made to folks who were not eligible to take on the financial responsibility they signed up for.
But they did not buy the mortgages in a vacuum. They were sold the mortgages by people who in many cases knew the loans could go bad. Indeed, many of the loans were structured to take advantage of ill-informed people who signed up for low initial payments only to be hit be massive increases a few years down the road.
There is another word for this type of seling: hucksterism. And huckstering is a fine American tradition. Indeed, some of the funniest passages in “Huckleberry Finn” describe the shenanigans of two hilarious hucksters – the duke and the king - who try to take advantage of country folk by pretending to be European royalty.
And it seems to me that with seven-year car loans we have yet another example of hucksterism - in this case, of presenting debt as affordable and pain free.
So long as you don’t look at it too closely and the implications down the road.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:46 AM | Permalink
February 11, 2008
Hey, guess what I watched this weekend? That old chestnut James Bond movie “Goldfinger” which I first saw in 1965 (when I was 15) and which is a great movie if you are interested in cars from that era.
Of course, everyone is familiar with the silver Aston Martin DB5, armed to the teeth and the most famous of Bond cars. Equally famous is the yellow and black 1937 Rolls Royce Phantom III Sedance de Ville which Goldfinger has fabricated in gold and then driven to Switzerland to have melted down.
But how about the white 1965 Ford Mustang convertible which gets in a driving duel with Bond in his DB5 on alpine roads with hairpin turns? It was Mustang’s debut on the silver screen. Or the white 1964 Ford Thunderbird which CIA agent Felix Leiter and his partner drive around?
Watching the Bond movies now, as I have occasionally with my 14-year old stepson Pat, they seem more quaint than cutting edge, more comic book than real.
But to an adolescent then (and now), it was mesmerizing.
The success of the Bond movies, especially the first three – “Dr. No,” “From Russia With Love,” and “Goldfinger” were partly due to the inimitable Sean Connery who, as a Scot from the wrong side of the railroad tracks is the only Bond who seems to have been able to give and take a beating, and partly due to the exotic locales – Jamaica, Istanbul (where Bond has figs and yoghurt for breakfast, foods no one had heard of back in the 1960s), Venice, Miami Beach, Switzerland and Kentucky.
Other gorgeous vehicles in Goldfinger include a red 1964 Ford Country Squire station wagon and a 1964 Lincoln Continental convertible sedan.
Then there is the Lincoln Continental sedan that Oddjob uses to drive a mobster to “the airport.” Instead he shoots him and delivers the body and car to a scrap yard which proceeds to crush the car into a cube. The cube is then deposited onto the flatbed of a green 1964 Ford Ranchero – which in real life would have been crushed by the load!
And in the background all through the movie, all sorts of cars and trucks so remote from today they might as well be horse-drawn carriages.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:21 AM | Permalink
February 8, 2008
Say it ain’t so!
Granola crunchy biofuels may actually add to global warming, according to The New York Times.
Boy, the bloom is fast coming off the biofuel rose.
Just a year or so ago, biodiesel and ethanol were all the rage; the fuels that were going to save us from both petroleum dependency on the Middle East and global warming.
Well, biodiesel remains the fuel of choice for the Professor Crackpots in their garages. Indeed, production is so low compared to petro-diesel that it barely appears on the radar screen.
Meanwhile, the ethanol “fuel of the future” miracle is looking less credible by the day. It is about 20 percent less efficient as a fuel than gasoline. And it is corrosive and can clog up engines if allowed to sit and absorb water, as it has a propensity to do.
In addition, federal subsidy programs have resulted in excess demand for corn, driving prices up, while limited outlets for ethanol has resulted in a glut, driving prices down.
Now comes the news that the destruction of natural ecosystems, such as forests and savannahs, to make way for corn production is adding to global warming.
Citing the journal Science, the NYT says the destruction of the ecosystems not only releases greenhouse gases when they are burned, but deprives the planet of natural sponges to absorb carbon dioxide.
The news is unlikely to deter production of corn and ethanol, however, as there is too much money at stake. And so we have to swallow an unexpected setback on the road to energy independence and relative climate stability.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 3:12 PM | Permalink
Chrysler is changing faster than you can say Mitt Romney.
The company, which was taken private by Cerberus Capital Management last year, says it plans to cut its range of models by as much as half and reduce the number of its dealerships by much as a third, according to the Detroit Free Press.
All this comes under a recently announced Project Genesis, as in beginning. Project Genesis replaces Project Alpha, as in beginning, which called for dealers to sell its Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep brands under one roof.
Those initiatives follow the elimination of 12,000 jobs announced in November, following the elimination of 13,000 jobs announced last February.
The company also dropped four models in November, including the Chrysler Crossfire and Dodge Magnum.
While Romney’s presidential candidacy partly foundered on shattered credibility as he flipped former moderate positions to suit conservative voters, the moves by Chrysler are an aggressive effort to get on the same playing field with Asian manufacturers.
Analysts have argued, for example, that over half of domestic dealerships, which sell an average of 600 vehicles a year, need to be closed in order to compete with import dealerships, which average more than 1,200 sales.
Hopefully Chrysler’s changes will have the opposite effect from the reaction to Romney’s shifts and increase its credibility with the consumer.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 12:16 PM | Permalink
February 7, 2008
Check out The Dallas Morning News' Terry Box find re the 10 worst cars as ranked by thetruthaboutcars.com.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 3:17 PM | Permalink
Folks, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but when AutoNation, the nation's biggest auto retailer, reports its earnings in the fourth quarter were down 31 percent, there is no point in burying our heads in the sand.
According to the Associated Press, the company said its results were pulled down by lower sales in California and Florida which account for a staggering 20 percent of industrywide new vehicle sales. The slowdown in the housing market in those states has rippled down to a slowdown in pickup sales.
AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson said he expects U.S.sales to fall to about 15.5 million vehicles this year. That's down from 16.2 million last year - which was down 2.5 percent from 2006. Goldman Sachs has forecast sales of 15 million units.
At the same time, Jackson said the recent 1.25 percentage point cut in interest rates - the Fed cut the bellwether federal funds rate by 0.75 percentage points on Jan. 22 and and a further 0.50 percentage points on Jan. 30 - to three percent, combined with the proposed economic stimulus package bode well for sales later this year.
Sure hope so. In the meantime, these are tough times for the auto industry - and everyone else.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 12:25 PM | Permalink
If you are remotely connected to the auto industry or just a gearhead fascinated with all things automotive, I can heartily recommend the Oscar nominated movie "There Will Be Blood" - but only for its start.
The beginning traces the rise of "Oilman" Daniel Plainview, played by Daniel Day Lewis, at the very birth of the oil industry. Plainview is a wildcatter, drilling for oil near the California coast and working out schemes to pipe it to the coast and down to Los Angeles.
The wild landscapes are not only beautiful but are complimented by an extraordinary musical score by British composer Jonny Greenwood that supplies a haunting sense of agitation and impending drama.
As I said, for these scenes alone, I really recommend the movie for an almost breathless sense of what it was like to seek a fortune by digging wells and pulling oil out by the bucket.
Unfortunately, the movie gets bogged down as Plainview and his rising fortunes become intertwined with religion - another great American theme - in the form of a fanatical young fundamentalist minister. Plainview becomes ever more malevolent and the movie ends up as a weird parody of "Citizen Kane" but without Rosebud: in other words, pointless.
PS See "Juno."
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 9:35 AM | Permalink
January 29, 2008
Motorists who modify an old diesel vehicle to run on straight vegetable oil make use of a greasy byproduct of the restaurant industry, reduce demand for petro-fuels and don’t use up materials needed to make a new car, but they get little respect, according to an opinion piece by Jim Kozubek in The Providence Journal.
The Internal Revenue Service gives tax credits to buyers of brand-new hybrid and lean-burning vehicles, but gear-heads who modify their own vehicles to run on straight vegetable oil get no tax credit.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:17 AM | Permalink
My old pal Jim Cobb, automobiles editor at The New York Times, is answering reader questions Jan. 28-Feb. 1 and so far the questions and his answers are very intersesting.
Check them out at Talk to the Newsroom: Automobiles Editor James G. Cobb
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:10 AM | Permalink
January 23, 2008
The Providence Auto Show, which opens tomorrow and runs through Sunday, features at least six concept cars in addition to some 2009 preproduction vehicles and nearly all current models on dealers lots ...
Excuse me, I'm quite forgetting myself. Make that the Northeast International Auto Show.
Oh dear, why is it that so many provincial auto shows feel the need to sex up their titles with "International?" What is international about them? The fact that they include foreign manufacturers?
Not only does Providence have its Northeast International, but Boston has the New England International Auto Show and Hartford the Connecticut International Auto Show.
Even Detroit, which hosts the world's biggest and most important auto show, calls its show the North American International Auto Show.
So does New York - which really is an international city; it calls its show the New York International Auto Show.
So kudos to two of the most important North American shows which eschew the "International" appellation/affectation: the Chicago Auto Show and the Los Angeles Auto Show.
PS Providence Auto Show sounds just fine by me!
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:30 AM | Permalink
January 18, 2008
It’s always interesting to talk to someone who knows what they are talking about.
Sobering, too.
For some time, I have been singing the praises of clean diesel and have regarded this year as a breakthrough one with the introduction of a number of mostly German models.
Then I had a chat with Allen Schaeffer, executive director of the Diesel Technology Forum, and while he is bullish on clean diesel, he is not starry-eyed about it.
As he pointed out, there is already a sizeable market in diesels in this country. Indeed, while hybrids have the ‘green’ spotlight over here, sales of diesels totaled about 480,000 vehicles last year compared to 350,000 hybrids.
“Diesels have been out there, outselling hybrids,” he said in telephone interview from Michigan on Friday. “But there have been few new (diesel) choices in the salesroom.”
That will change.
“This year, twelve auto manufacturers will make at least thirteen firm diesel model introductions and announcements, along with unveiling four future diesel concepts, in half a dozen market segments,” he wrote in his blog from the Detroit Auto Show, where nearly twenty diesel vehicles were on display.
But he said that while clean diesel might get more publicity this year, there are still substantial issues, not least of which is price.
“The price of diesel today works against consumer interest,” he said, noting it was 40 cents to 50 cents a gallon more than gasoline.
At the same time, he said diesel offers distinct advantages over hybrid technology, such as not having to worry about batteries, providing towing capacity and higher resale values.
As far as “a breakthrough” is concerned, he said there were two ways to look at it – sales and awareness. He said he thought diesel was on the crest of a substantial increase in awareness, but whether that translates into sales in the showroom remains to be seen.
“Certainly we believe that once a consumer gets behind the wheel of a new diesel, (he or she) is going to be sold on it,” he said.
And as far as diesel hybrids are concerned, he was wary. I confess that I have long thought it is an ideal combination of technologies.
Well, it may be, but as Schaeffer pointed out, it represents the combining of two premium – read expensive – power trains.
“It’s the great calculus for auto companies,” he said. “Anything is possible, they know how to make these technologies work, but what is the consumer willing to pay? What can the consumer afford?
As I said, by the end of the conversation I felt like a bit of a blagger – or someone who has been expounding on something I know less about than I thought I did!
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 3:28 PM | Permalink
January 11, 2008
India's Tata Motors unveiled its $2,500 Nano car at the Auto Show in New Delhi on Thursday and the company expects to sell millions of the four-door, 625 cc rear-wheel drive cars in a country with a population of 1.1 billion but where only about seven in 1,000 have cars.
(At the other end of the scale, Tata, India's largest conglomerate with sales of $29 billion last year, is also currently in the midst of negotiations to acquire luxury marques Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford.)
But back to the modest Nano which is certainly very elemental indeed. Indeed, Americans might be excused for wondering why anyone would want to buy such an simple car. But when you've been balancing your family on a scooter everyday or moving along at less than five mph while looking up the ass of a donkey, the Nano must look like a real nice alternative.
Indeed, this is truly a Phase 2 of the people's car, with Phase 1 having taken place in Europe following WWII with the introduction of the Volkswagen Beetle in Germany, the Fiat 500 in Italy, the Citroen 2CV in France and Morris Minor and Mini in England.
(Come to think of it, maybe the introduction of the Ford Model T in the U.S. 100 years ago was the first people's car.)
But in Europe following the devestation of WWII, millions of people who had formerly been limited to walking, bicycling or riding in horse- or donkey-drawn carts, finally had access to the freedom of the internal combusion engine.
Of course, any potential increase in the number of cars has enormous implications in terms of congestion and pollution. Consider that one billion cars are expected to be on the world's roads by 2010, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal in 2006, which is about 25 percent more than are on the roads today.
But for the time being, the little Tata Nano offers millions of Indians the kind of freedoms and opportunities we in the developed world take for granted, and that is a very good thing indeed.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:33 AM | Permalink
January 4, 2008
A few months ago, I admitted to text messaging while driving and stated that I was not going to do it any more because it is so ridiculously dangerous.
Apparently Britain agrees and the Crown Prosecution Service is now putting it under the category of dangerous driving which can carry a fine of $10,000 and six months in jail. (Death by dangerous driving can carry a sentence of up to 14 years in jail.)
Britain's draconian approach to the use of cell phones while driving came my attention last week which I spent in Britain attending to my father who is gravely ill. My brother and sister also took time off during the week and as we coordinated visits to hospital, there were many times when a cell phone would have helped
But there was no question of using one while driving. With a widespread network of cameras in place to monitor traffic and speeding, anyone in Britain caught using a phone has faced fines since 2003. The only exception is calling emergency services.
Initially the fine was $60 but that was upped last year to $120 and three points of the offender's license.
The ban on cell phones followed studies which found that drivers using cell phones were four times more likely to have an accident - a figure which matches the legal limit of alcohol.
Here the laws against the use cell phones while driving come in different forms. California, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York and Washington, the District of Columbia and the Virgin Islands have enacted laws prohibiting driving while talking on handheld cell phones, according to the Governors Highway Safety Association.
In Rhode Island, school bus drivers (except in emergencies) and drivers younger than 18 may not use a cell phone.
At the same time, studies in Britain have found that a number of activities - eating, smoking, map reading and tuning the stereo - are potentially dangerous when done while driving. In 2006, a woman was fined $400 and had six points docked off her license when she was charged with careless driving after being filmed applying makeup while driving.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 1:35 PM | Permalink
December 26, 2007
I will be taking time off to go to England tonight and will stay into next week to visit my beloved father who is extremely ill.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:35 AM | Permalink
December 17, 2007
The new bosses at Chrysler LLC have made many good decisions so far -- hiring Toyota executive Jim Press, signing a cost-cutting labor deal with the UAW and moving to trim slow-selling models.
It's got a chance to make another wise choice now, but the early signs are not good, according to Detroit Free Press columnist Mark Phelan.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 9:38 AM | Permalink
December 14, 2007
It's the biggest cliche in auto journalism: Who needs 4-wheel drive to go to the mall?
Yes, it is customary to mock the ads on TV which disguise suburban mice as 4-wheel drive monsters thundering across the American plain with mesas in the background, or creating rooster tails of snow as they cruise through two feet of the stuff with pine trees in the background.
(Other vehicles are never in the background.)
But after Thursday night's snow storm, many of us were glad we had either 4-wheel or All-wheel drive. It certainly made driving easier and all it took was a couple of 2-wheel/rear drive vehicles getting stuck to hold up traffic and create gridlock for hundreds.
Whether one needs a Hummer for those few days a year when suburban driving does turn into an outdoor adventure is debatable. But that is beside the point.
As was recently pointed out to me by Matt Fields who runs the communications office at Consumer Reports' auto test track in East Haddam, Conn., people don't just buy the vehicles they need; they often buy the vehicles they think they need.
That is one of the great undefinable aspects of auto marketing.
But while gas prices in this country remain half the price of Europe let alone most other nations, it's a fair bet that people will continue to pay the extra dollar for the safety they think they get from the 4-wheel drive and higher visibility of an SUV or crossover or CUV (crossover utility vehicle).
And when it occasionally snows, they will be rewarded.
At the same time, do so many vehicles need to have that third row of seats? I've had a reverse third seat in two Volvo station wagons over the last four years and have hardly ever had to use it despite having a family.
The third row seems to be a hand-down from the minivan, the forerunner to the SUV in terms of popularity, which was specifically designed to be a people pusher. But those third seats, which certainly add to the weight of a vehicle, are beginning to get pretty tight in the crossovers. And are they really used that much?
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 12:32 PM | Permalink
December 5, 2007
If the United States slips into a recession next year, it could unfold very differently in Detroit than it did in 2001, according to Detroit Free Press business writers Tim Higgins and Jewel Gopwani.
That time, automakers offered generous incentives to buyers in the wake of 9/11, rather than let demand fall and plants go idle. GM kicked off the no-interest loan craze with its Keep America Rolling campaign.
Incentives won't go away, but this time it appears that automakers are more likely to accept fewer sales at higher prices. Automakers are already choosing to cut production to meet reduced demand.
To be clear: No Detroit automaker is talking recession publicly, but on Monday, GM and Ford both announced lower production plans for the first quarter of 2008 -- the lowest since at least the recession of 1991.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:01 AM | Permalink
November 30, 2007
Ethanol took a hit as an alternative fuel with the recent release of a paper from the conservative Pardee Rand Graduate School in Santa Monica.
The study examines the benefits and costs of three alternative fuel technologies through for the 2010-2020 period: "gasoline-electric hybrid technology, advanced diesel technology, and vehicles powered continuously by a mixture of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline (E85)."
It found that when taking into account the variables of oil prices, the efficiencies of the fuels in addition to the pros and cons of each from a private and a social perspective that ethanol blends were less cost effective than diesel, gas hybrids and gasoline itself.
This is a further blow to the ethanol lobby following a collapse in ethanol prices due to a glut based on hopes that it was the fuel of the future.
Indeed, clean, or advanced, diesel comes out on top. While the American auto makers may be disappointed by this news - they have been focusing on "a portfolio" of alternative fuels such as ethanol blends, gas/electric hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell/electric vehicles which they seem to regard as cleaner alternatives compared to advanced diesel - the European manufacturers have been focusing on diesel.
In a recent interview I had with Brian Nesbitt at the New England International Auto Show earlier this week, the charming and accessible head of GM design in North America who has just returned from a three year tour in Europe, I asked him what he thought of the new diesel technology. He said he thought it was not clean compared to the alternatives and might run into regulatory problems in the U.S.
"It all comes back to what the custover wants," he said.
Fair enough. And in a land where gasoline at $3 a gallon is less than half the price it is in Europe, it is not surprising that we Americans still want big vehicles with powertrains that are driven by gasoline-based fuels.
But as I have said before, the diesels are coming with VW and Mercedes-Benz bringing over an increasing number of models next year. And in Europe, the BMW 3- and 5-series diesels are wowing critics. Volvo has a range of diesel cars in Europe and I cannot imagine they would not sell over here. Volvo drivers are the ultimate granola crunchy liberal types - I know, I'm one - and I'm sure most would jump at the opportunity to go clean diesel.
Now let me see, we've discussed ethanol, gas hybrids and clean diesel in addition to our old friend gasoline - that leaves hydrogen fuel cell technology which has been in the news recently because of the release of the Honda FCX Clarity.
But reviews of this car reveal the drawbacks of the technology. Consider that while it is being touted as the first regular production hydrogen cell car, Honda plans to lease only 100 of them for three years at $600 a month. Meanwhile, the cars are estimated to cost $300,000 each!
Folks, those numbers work only in the laboratory. And then there is the issue of emissions. Sure, the only emission from a hydrogen fuel cell car is water, a point made in Honda's recent ad campaign that announces: "The Droplet Heard Around the World."
But what a load of cobblers! What's not mentioned is the fact that over 90 percent of commercial hydrogen is made through steam reforming which uses natural gas and steam. Two problems here: one is that we have less than five percent of the world's natural gas reserves - Russia, Iran and Qatar have the biggest reserves - and the waste products from steam reforming include carbon dioxide!
Hydrogen fuel cell technology may well be the fuel of the future but that future is 20 years out. Meanwhile, we have a fuel that is clean and efficient and available. We can't stop the world, so let's move on with clean diesel while we have it and keep looking for cleaner alternatives as we go. For the time being, it seems to me, clean diesel rules.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 2:03 PM | Permalink
November 26, 2007
Forget about dropping or radically redefining brands. Chrysler LLC needs to focus on patching the holes in its model line, sharpening the definition of its Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep brands and developing first-rate vehicles to cure what ails it, according to the Detroit Free Press's Mark Phelan.
"It can be done," said Jim Hall, managing director of 2953 Analytics, a Birmingham-based industry analysis firm. "Chrysler can become a premium brand, Dodge could appeal to younger buyers, and Jeep could be the tough, off-road brand."
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:25 AM | Permalink
November 23, 2007
Despite mounting evidence from the scientific community that man-made carbon emissions are changing the world's atmosphere, it is likely that we will do the minimum to deal with the problem until we are forced to. Indeed, many of us won't do anything at all.
Yes, we are driving more fuel efficient vehicles and new technologies - from clean diesel, to gas hybrids to hydrogen fuel cells are beginning to thunder over the horzon - but it is really too little that is possible too late.
But that has always been our history in dealing with major crises - whether geographical or geopolitical let alone domestic civil and political strife. And when I say we, I mean the entire human community.
Global warming is too abstract a notion for the average person to get their head around. And the changes required to deal with it in a prophylactic fashion call for more sacrifice from individiuals, communites, nations and economic interests than can be marshalled without overwhelming evidence of imminent danger.
When I last wrote about global warming following the joint granting of the Nobel Peace Prize to Al Gore and the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a number of people complained that global warming was by no means a proven threat. I had referred to them as troglodytes, which was very rude, but have to confess that debating the reality of global warming at this point is the equivalent of Nero's infamous fiddling while Rome burned.
As a recent panel of scientists from around the world recently concluded in a policy paper for government leaders to consider at a meeting next month in Indonesia, "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal."
That sets the tone of the meeting in Indonesia that will set the agenda for a round of talks on a new international treaty on controlling carbon emissions when the current measures in the Kyoto Protocol expire in 2012.
Call me a doomsayer, but I do not think humankind will get serious about this problem until some fearful event occurs that is indisputably linked to global warming. Katrina, forest fires in California, flooding in Europe and S.E. Asia, drought in Australia? All are isolated and can possibly be explained by normal variations in the global climate.
An old saw has it that we humans are inferior to cats, superior to dogs and on the same level as donkeys. Why? Because only a donkey would fall in the same ditch time and time again.
Maybe that's condescending to donkeys, but the history of our kind when it comes to dealing with major crises is not encouraging. We seem to let them foster and fester until they erupt in a splurge of bloodletting and dislocation.
A history of the 20th century, with its wars and revolutions would seem to provide all the lessons we need in the tragic consequences of ignoring problems until too late. I wish I could be more optimistic, but I do not think the continuing skeptism toward this problem combined with the unwillingness of economic and political interests to make sacrifices or take responsibility or risks bode well for us all.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:39 AM | Permalink
Despite mounting evidence from the scientific community that man-made carbon emissions are changing the world's atmosphere, it is likely that we will do the minimum to deal with the problem until we are forced to. Indeed, many of us won't do anything at all.
Yes, we are driving more fuel efficient vehicles and new technologies - from clean diesel, to gas hybrids to hydrogen fuel cells are beginning to thunder over the horzon - but it is really too little that is possible too late.
But that has always been our history in dealing with major crises - whether geographical or geopolitical let alone domestic civil and political strife. And when I say we, I mean the entire human community.
Global warming is too abstract a notion for the average person to get their head around. And the changes required to deal with it in a prophylactic fashion call for more sacrifice from individiuals, communites, nations and economic interests than can be marshalled without overwhelming evidence of imminent danger.
When I last wrote about global warming following the joint granting of the Nobel Peace Prize to Al Gore and the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a number of people complained that global warming was by no means a proven threat. I had referred to them as troglodytes, which was very rude, but have to confess that debating the reality of global warming at this point is the equivalent of Nero's infamous fiddling while Rome burned.
As a recent panel of scientists from around the world recently concluded in a policy paper for government leaders to consider at a meeting next month in Indonesia, "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal."
That sets the tone of the meeting in Indonesia that will set the agenda for a round of talks on a new international treaty on controlling carbon emissions when the current measures in the Kyoto Protocol expire in 2012.
Call me a doomsayer, but I do not think humankind will get serious about this problem until some fearful event occurs that is indisputably linked to global warming. Katrina, forest fires in California, flooding in Europe and S.E. Asia, drought in Australia? All are isolated and can possibly be explained by normal variations in the global climate.
An old saw has it that we humans are inferior to cats, superior to dogs and on the same level as donkeys. Why? Because only a donkey would fall in the same ditch time and time again.
Maybe that's condescending to donkeys, but the history of our kind when it comes to dealing with major crises is not encouraging. We seem to let them foster and fester until they erupt in a splurge of bloodletting and dislocation.
A history of the 20th century, with its wars and revolutions would seem to provide all the lessons we need in the tragic consequences of ignoring problems until too late. I wish I could be more optimistic, but I do not think the continuing skeptism toward this problem combined with the unwillingness of economic and political interests to make sacrifices or take responsibility or risks bode well for us all.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:39 AM | Permalink
November 16, 2007
There was a dreadful story in Friday's New York Times about a 19-year-old Saudi girl who had a sentence upped to 200 lashes and six months in jail because her lawyer complained that her conviction was unjust and the punishments meted out to seven men who raped her were too lenient.
Her crime? Being in the same car with an unrelated man! He was actually her former boyfriend and was returning pictures to her because she was about to marry another man.
I hope the marriage is still on, but I doubt it. You see, her "crime" came to light when she and the former boyfriend were kidnapped by the seven men who raped them both. She and her former boyfriend was originally sentenced to 90 lashes each for meeting with each other.
Certainly the men who kidnapped and raped them were punished with a mix of lashings and prison terms. But to sentence a 19-year-old girl to lashings and a prison term because a court suspected she intended to do something bad is not just unjust to the Western mind - it's bonkers.
But this is a world where women can't travel without permission, drive, study such subjects as law and engineering, vote, work in many government offices and have to wear neck-to-ankle black robes and cover their hair with a black scarf.
But don't say a word. We don't want to rock the boat that has the biggest reserves of the lifeblood of the industrial world. The Saudis are our friends.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 2:21 PM | Permalink
November 9, 2007
Cars are not going away. They are too good at doing what they do.
But with crude oil prices flirting with $100 a barrel, continued and growing demand for petroleum products from the developing world, especially China and India, and the Bush administration's sabre rattling against Iran, it is only a matter of time before gas prices take another bump, maybe this time to more than $4 a gallon.
We seem to be living in a dream world. Our armed forces are fighting under horrendous physical and psychological conditions in Iraq, but we scarcely pay them any heed. Indeed, most of us seem to have bowed out of the whole Iraq front on Bush's War on Terror in frustration.
Nothing seems to be going right. The bombs continue in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the last remaining cohorts of Bush's coalition of the willing are edging for the exit and our fragile ally Pakistan is in a political meltdown. Not encouraging when one considers that Pakistan all but has the bomb while its inpeneterable Northwest Frontier is a bastion of terrorism and terrorists.
Meanwhile, the Treasury Department reported earlier in the week that our national debt hit a record $9 trillion. Together with the mortgage meltdown here at home, and a warning from Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke that the economy is slowing and one might be justified in thinking dark thoughts about the immediate future.
But it is just this kind of incentive that is going to drive folks to fuel efficient vehicles. Yes, the sky may be falling in terms of global warming, but the bottom line for most folks is the bottom line on their household budgets. And so expect to see increasing numbers of people being motivated by fuel efficiency rather than granola crunchy idealism as they move toward alternate fuels.
And cars are certainly got going away in Germany where the transport minister this week announced that about half of its autobahn (interstate) highway system would remain with no speed limits.
The Social Democrats wanted to impose a 130 kilometer per hour (80 mph) speed limit to help reduce CO2 emissons.
Wow. And you wondered why Germany produces so many high performace cars? They can really drive 'em!
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 1:47 PM | Permalink
October 29, 2007
Here are the business precepts developed by Sakichi Toyoda, an inventor who founded the Toyota Motor Sales Company and whose son Kiichiro got the company into the automobile business:
1. Be contributive to the development and welfare of the country by working together, regardless of position, in faithfully fulfilling your duties.
2. Be at the vanguard of the times through endless creativity, inquisitiveness and the pursuit of improvement.
3. Be practical and avoid frivolity.
4. Be kind and generous; strive to create a warm, homelike atmosphere.
5. Be reverent, and show gratitude for things great and small in thought and deed.
Toyota's current guiding principles, which were established in 1990 and revised in 1997, retain the flavor of the original precepts. Here they are as listed on its Web site:
1. Honor the language and spirit of the law of every nation and undertake open and fair corporate activities to be a good corporate citizen of the world.
2. Respect the culture and customs of every nation and contribute to economic and social development through corporate activities in the communities.
3. Dedicate ourselves to providing clean and safe products and to enhancing the quality of life everywhere through all our activities.
4. Create and develop advanced technologies and provide outstanding products and services that fulfill the needs of customers worldwide.
5. Foster a corporate culture that enhances individual creativity and teamwork value, while honoring mutual trust and respect between labor and management.
6. Pursue growth in harmony with the global community through innovative management.
7. Work with business partners in research and creation to achieve stable, long-term growth and mutual benefits, while keeping ourselves open to new partnerships.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:51 AM | Permalink
Fifty years ago this week, Toyota Motor Sales Co. introduced the Toyopet Crown into the U.S. market out of a former Rambler dealership in Hollywood. The car was not a great success and sold only 2,000 models by 1961 before being pulled.
But in 1965 Toyota introduced the Corona and in 1968 the Corolla; combined sales of these models totaled about 125,000 in 1969 and the rest is history.
This week's edition of the authoritive Automotive News includes a 192-page supplement devoted to the anniversary of Toyota's arrival in the United States.
"This is the company that changed the world," it writes in a lead editorial, noting that not only has Toyota grown to challenge GM as the world's biggest auto maker but has had a profound influence on how every other auto maker operates.
"The list of advances is long," it continues. "The single-minded focus on quality, the striving for customer satisfaction, the early emphasis on fuel economy, Lexus, lean manufacturing, collaborative supplier relations, hybrid vehicles."
Automotive News argues that Toyota embodies the combined genius of three giants of the American auto industry: Henry Ford, Alfred P. Sloan (General Motors) and Walter Chrysler who were "respectively masterminds of manufacturing, corporate governance and engineering."
It adds that while there are a number of key individuals involved in Toyota's success, it is "the ultimate team." (See a separate entry outlining the precepts of good business as developed by family patriarch Sakichi Toyoda.)
For his part, Keith E. Crain, publisher and editor-in-chief of Automotive News, writes that Toyota is now part of the American landscape.
"There are more than 1,400 Toyota, Lexus and Scion dealerships across the country. Toyota has assembly plants from one end of North America to the other and component suppliers throughout the United States, Canada and Mexico."
"Toyota dealers are among the most profitable," he writes. "And Toyota still believes that the retail automobile dealer is the company's customer, a philosophy that is unique in the automobile business."
Crain concedes that the gasoline crises of the 1970s gave a boost to Toyota as Americans turned to smaller, more fuel efficient cars. But then they found the cars were well made and reliable and continued to buy them in greater and greater numbers.
Detroit tried to stiff arm the competition over the years, but Toyota met the challenge both by moving manufacturing over here and moving into a wider range of market segments - upscale with Lexus, blue collar with trucks, trendy with Scion and granola crunchy with the Prius.
Indeed, 2007 marked a watershed as Toyota introduced its full-size Tundra pickup truck, thus taking on Detroit in a segment long dominated by Ford and GM, and becoming a sponsor of America's new favorite sporting event, NASCAR.
So all hail a genuine Japanese-American success story - one that we could all learn from.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:10 AM | Permalink
October 24, 2007
Diesels are taking over in Europe.
While Asian car makers are busy putting their eggs into gas-electric hybrid technology - Toyota sees hybrids being the main powertrain of its vehicles by 2020 - Europe has moved aggressively ahead with clean diesel engines. (U.S. automakers are playing coy, investing in all technologies but committing to none.)
I just returned from a trip to visit family in southern England and the tractor-toc of diesel engines could be heard from cars large and small, including the 2007 VW Passat 2.0 TDI that I rented from Budget Rent A Car at Heathrow Airport and the 2007 BMW 118 d M Sport Diesel rocket my sister-in-law drives.
TDI stands for Turbo Direct Injection which is the heart of the Audi-VW new diesel technology, the key being the intense pressure under which the fuel is injected directly into the combustion chamber. Indeed, while diesel is more oily than gasoline, the pressure is such that it is virtually turned into a gas, making combustion more intense and more efficient.
And to prove their technology, Audi's TDI R10 race cars have won the last two Le Mans 24-Hour Endurance Races in grand style. These cars are ferociously fast.
Getting back to my modest Passat, l found its performance to be outstanding in comparison with a gasoline engine. Certainly, the traditional torque of diesel-power provided a powerful and solid kick to its acceleration.
More important perhaps, the price was right. In all, I traveled 490 miles. The car was full when I rented it and I refueled it just once and that was before returning it. The tank was just under half empty and needed 38.6 liters to fill.
Translating into American, that’s about 10.2 gallons, which equates to an excellent 48 miles to the gallon. In addition, the fuel’s efficiency makes it cleaner from an emissions point of view.
Let's see: Fast, quiet, economic to run and lower emissions. Sounds like a winner to me!
Incidentally, another sign of the times in Europe: Of the three nozzles at each of the pump stands at the BP station, only one was gasoline – 95 octane at the equivalent of about $7 a gallon. The other two were diesel – Ultima at $7.69 a gallon and regular at $7.35 a gallon.
That’s expensive, but when you are getting 48 miles to the gallon, the economics work and that’s why Europeans increasingly drive new diesels. Indeed, sales of diesel-powered cars in Europe topped 50% in 2006 (51%), rising to 52.2% for the first six months of this year, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. About 75 percent of the cars in Norway now run on diesel.
I am not saying clean diesel is the answer. Gas hybrids are a real alternative with diesel hybrids perhaps being the best of both worlds. And down the line, fuel cell electric power perhaps provides a real glimpse of the future. But that future is at lesat 20 years away.
In the meantime, clean diesel offers a solid step up from gasoline and as I have mentioned a number of times, now that most the U.S. has low-sulfur diesel available, look for a big increase in sales of European diesels starting next year.
I just wish Volvo would get on and bring its V50 2.4D5 diesel wagon over here!
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 2:38 PM | Permalink
Yes, here it is, a Ford Ka turned into a killer whale courtesy of a body kit available in Britain.
I saw one parked in a driveway near my father's house in West Sussex and it's quite a sight. What it is to drive, I cannot imagine!
I'll be writing more about both the Ford Ka and the OrKa kit in a short story for Sunday's Providence Journal.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:46 AM | Permalink
October 16, 2007
I will be taking off a few days so this blog will be inactive from now until Wednesday, October 24.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 4:43 PM | Permalink
Seen the latest prices for crude oil? Over $88 a barrel!
I cut my professional teeth in the early 1980s as an oil reporter in New York City for Energy Intelligence, Platts Oilgram and Reuters, so I always follow the basic price of crude oil which to me is a key economic indicators.
Back then, $39 a barrel was the highest price that crude oil had ever reached - in early 1981. But that was before the spot market let alone the oil futures markets of today.
And as the price closes in on $90 a barrel, prices will soon be the highest they have ever been - even adjusting for inflation.
What's driving them? Simple supply and demand.
The supply pressure comes from uncertainty. The Middle East remains by far the biggest source of crude but also the most politically volatile region in the world. We've made a hash of Iraq which is now in chaos, Iran cocks a snook at the world with its nuclear plans and genocidal declarations about Israel and Osama bin Laden pursues his ultimate goal - the takeover of Saudi Arabia.
Consquently any blip in that region reverbrates through the market sending oil prices up.
Meanwhile, demand keeps going up. The industrializing third world, especially the mega-economies of China and India, have put pressure on oil supplies in recent years. And here in the U.S., we continue to wallow in low energy prices.
Europe has already cut into demand by taxing energy to the point that a gallon of gasoline is now the equivalent of $8 a gallon. You don't see many SUVs in Europe!
But as prices continue to go up, research into alternatives is bound to increase. It's simply a matter of economics. It's one thing to do R&D into alternative energy because of CO2 emissions and the ozone layer; it's another to do it because the price of oil is becoming exorbitant. The former is driven by enlightened self-interest; the latter by simple self-interest.
And that's where the analogy of the last whale comes in. For while we came close, we would never have killed off all the whales. It would have been too expensive to chase down the last one.
And so it is with oil. At a certain point, it becomes too expensive and we are forced to look for an alternative. To be sure, that time is a long way off but when crude prices are over $88 a barrel, it may not be that far off.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 3:39 PM | Permalink
The price of oil was higher Monday than it's ever been, presaging increases for gasoline and other fuels — though not for long if oil speculators get cold feet and additional supplies hit the market as expected, according to USA Today's James R. Healey.
The closing price of $86.13 per barrel eclipsed the previous record of $83.69, set Friday. West Texas Intermediate — light, sweet crude — for delivery next month traded as high as $86.22 a barrel during the day, also a record.
Adjusted for inflation, the highest price recorded by the U.S. Energy Information Administration is $93.09, in January 1981.
The retail price of gasoline "would be about $3 this time of year if $86 oil is sustained," says Stephen Brown, director of energy economics at the Dallas Federal Reserve. Instead, the nationwide average for regular is $2.762, the EIA reported Monday. That was 0.8 of a cent less than last week, but 53.6 cents more than a year ago. A separate survey by AAA showed the average at $2.757 Monday, down 0.4 of a penny overnight.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:37 AM | Permalink
October 12, 2007
Bravo Al Gore!
By awarding the 2007 Noble Peace Prize to former US vice president Al Gore for his work on bringing the word on climate change to the average person's attention, the Noble Foundation itself serves to focus attention on this serious problem.
Gore shares the prize with the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a top scientific authority on global warming and its impact made up of some 3,000 atmospheric scientists, oceanographers, ice specialists, economists and other experts.
Needless to say, troglodytes from the Far Right denounced the award, partly one supposes due to aversion to Gore himself and the Democratic Party, and partly because many of them remain firmly convinced that the changes in the global climate currently underway are due to natural causes.
At least they are now admitting that changes are underway!
Happily most thinking people have come to terms with our own role in the changes and our responsibility to do something about it. Certainly, billions of dollars are now being spent worldwide on research into the problem, most especially all the work on alternative fuels in the transportation industry. And we are all changing our lifestyles in one way or another.
To be sure, the issues are incredibly complex, but that is why Gore's film "An Inconvenient Truth," which was essentially a celluloid version of a lecture he has been giving for years, caught the public's attention with its clear presentation of the facts.
The call is now out for Gore to enter the race for President. Indeed, a full-page ad in the New York Times earlier this week urged him to enter the Democratic race. But it remains to be seen whether he is interested.
The irony is that whether he runs or not, history may vindicate his controversial loss to President George Bush in 2000. For while Gore now has an Academy Award and a Noble Peace Prize under his belt, Bush is heading for the distinction of going down as one of the worst presidents ever.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 12:49 PM | Permalink
October 5, 2007
Don't denigrate federal subsidies just because they can lead to market imbalances.
Unfortunately, that certainly seems to have happened with President Bush's initiative to boost ethanol production.
Demand for corn has gone up leading to higher prices, but limited outlets for selling ethanol - or the E85 blend - has resulted in a glut of ethanol and lower prices, according to last Sunday's New York Times.
And that is leading to cutbacks in industry plans and a probable consolidation with smaller players dropping by the wayside, according to the NYT.
Sure, the Senate Finance Committee just approved a tax bill that includes lowering the tax credit for ethanol by 5 cents to 46 cents a gallon when production exceeds 7.5 billion gallons a year which is expected by the end of this year. But it also extended a 54-cent-a-gallon tariff on ethanol imports until 2011.
It may be anathma to neocons like Bush et al, but the federal subsidy program reflects a crude form of the mixed market economics that has been so successful in Japan and other nations.
Maybe if Bush had just offered tax credits, the results would not have been so extreme. But he added protectionist tariffs, resulting in a massive buck a gallon advantage to domestic suppliers.
And prompted by that incentive, ethanol production has gotten out of hand. I mean, consider this simple fact from the NYT: Only about 1,000 pumps at the nation’s 179,000 gasoline stations offer gasoline blended with ethanol. That's "pumps" at "stations."
And none of them are in New England.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:18 AM | Permalink
October 1, 2007
Check out one of the BBC's top TV shows, Top Gear, starring Britain's most famous auto critic, Jeremy Clarkson. This particular show, in which he and his two co-stars fly to Miami, buy three cars for $1,000 each and drive to New Orleans, is hiliarious and available on YouTube in six segments.
Particularly funny are the adventures the three have in finding the cars, where they end up at the most dubious used car lots imaginable in the back, back streets of Miami, and testing of cars on the track at the Moroso Motorsports Park in Palm Beach.
Then there is the driving across Alabama with huge provocative signs painted on the old cars: NASCAR SUCKS; I'M BI and MANLOVE RULES OK: HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT; COUNTRY MUSIC IS RUBBISH. Needless to say they and the camera crew nearly get killed by a mob at a gas station!
Here are the link to the first show.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:43 AM | Permalink
Bill Brickach and Cheryl Fonseca write to tell me that I was all wet when I wrote that the bullet-shaped chrome fenders on the 1955 Cadillac in Ken Andrade's shop, Hot Rides in East Providence, were named after the silent screen actress Dagmar Godowsky.
They write it was the 1950's TV personality "Dagmar" who served as the origin of the name, and certainly Bill's link to this site is very convincing:
http://www.answers.com/topic/dagmar-1
Thanks Folks!
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 9:12 AM | Permalink
September 25, 2007
The United Automobile Workers union wielded its most potent weapon against General Motors yesterday, sending 73,000 workers to picket lines in its first national strike at G.M. since 1970, according to the New York Times' Micheline Maynard.
Union officials said they were left no choice but to strike because General Motors was unwilling to accept the union’s demand that it protect workers’ jobs and benefits.
For General Motors, its unyielding stance reflects its decision to accept the short-term pain of a strike at 80 facilities in 30 states to achieve its goals: a lower cost structure and more flexible work force to better compete against surging Japanese automakers like Toyota and Honda.
“This really is a defining moment,” said James P. Womack, an expert on manufacturing and co-author of “The Machine That Changed the World,” which studied the plants of Japanese automakers in the United States. “G.M. has backed away from defining moments for generations. And now somebody there has finally said, ‘We have to do this because it’s a new era.’ ”
The length of the walkout may hinge on the answers to two crucial questions: How long can the U.A.W. afford to stay out? And how long can G.M. endure a strike? While an indefinite strike would pose risk to both sides, each has made a calculated decision that it has more to gain by standing tough.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 9:58 AM | Permalink
The strike might be on, but Wall Street doesn't believe that an agreement between GM and the UAW to create a new retiree health care fund is completely off, according to Detroit Free Press columnist Susan Tompor.
GM stock held its own. GM closed at $34.74 Monday, down 20 cents a share. Ford Motor Co. closed at $8.48 a share, up 25 cents a share. GM has requested that the UAW take control of a new retiree health care fund to pay out future liabilities estimated at $50 billion in exchange for a onetime payment into the fund from the automaker.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 9:48 AM | Permalink
Let's take UAW President Ron Gettelfinger at his word when he says, as he did Monday after striking General Motors Corp., "There's not one person on this stage ... that wanted to see these negotiations end in a strike. Who wins in a strike?"
Gettelfinger, of course, blamed GM for being unreasonable.
But wasn't he also conceding, in a way, that the UAW is in a predicament? It's an institution with declining influence, fewer and fewer friends and one big weapon it can ill afford to use without destroying itself in the process, according to Detroit Free Press columnist Tom Walsh.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 9:45 AM | Permalink
The strike many believed never would happen shut down General Motors plants nationwide Monday, casting uncertainty on whether the U.S. auto industry can get the kind of revolutionary changes it says it needs to compete, according to the Detroit Free Press.
An end to the first nationwide UAW strike in 31 years will depend on resolving the key union issues of wages and benefits, job security and investment in U.S. facilities and vehicles, UAW President Ron Gettelfinger indicated at a news conference Monday.
He repeatedly said that the strike was not related to talks over a landmark retiree health care trust on which the two parties are believed to have agreed to a general framework.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 9:42 AM | Permalink
DETROIT -- If the United Auto Workers strike against General Motors Corp. lasts longer than a week or two, it could cost GM billions of dollars and stop the momentum the company was building with some of its new models, according to several industry analysts, according to the Associated Press.
A strike of two weeks or less would not hurt GM's cash position and would actually improve its inventory situation, Lehman Brothers analyst Brian Johnson said Monday in a note to investors. But a longer strike would be harmful, causing GM to burn up $8.1 billion in the first month and $7.2 billion in the second month, assuming the company can't produce vehicles in Mexico or Canada, Johnson wrote.
Initially, the strike wouldn't have much impact on consumers because GM has so much inventory, the analysts say. The company had just under 950,000 vehicles in stock at the end of August, about 35,000 less than at the same time last year.
But Tom Libby, senior director of industry analysis for J.D. Power and Associates, said even a short strike could hurt GM because its new crossover vehicles - the Buick Enclave, GMC Acadia and Saturn Outlook - are selling well and in short supply.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 9:40 AM | Permalink
September 24, 2007
Does the demise of the British car industry set an example for Detroit?
The names of the great British marques live on, giving class and credibility to the vehicles that carry them, but the companies have long been shells for foreign carmakers.
In particular, the two biggest companies, Austin and Morris, went out of business as independent companies decades ago.
Rolls-Royce is owned by BMW as is Mini. Bentley is owned by Volkswagen. Jaguar and Landrover are owned by Ford is currently trying to sell. Ford sold Aston Martin for about $1 million to an investment consortium in March.
Indeed, the most viable British carmakers are Ford, which is owned by Ford, and Vauxhall, which is owned by GM with only remaining wholly owned British marques tiny specialty outfits like Morgan and Noble.
Meanwhile, France has Peugeot-Citroen and Renault, Italy has Fiat and Germany, of course, has three premier global marques - BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen.
What happened to the British car industry?
It might be easy to blame its demise on the damage caused by WWII. But France, Germany and Italy were all heavily damaged by the war.
No, a more likely culprit can be found in the dreadful labor relations that followed WWII, with rotten management often at loggerheads with intransigent unions.
And herein the lesson for Detroit. The current strike against GM by the United Auto Workers union is merely the latest incident in a long history of ebbing market share to Asian and European manufacturers.
For decades Detroit has been a byword for second-rate design and execution, forced to play catchup with innovations in both design and technology pouring out of Asia.
As for glamor, long gone are Detroit's glory days of the 1950s and 1960s. German and German-owned British marques and high-end Italian marques are the cars people currently drool over.
And now the union contracts that have had Detroit against the financial ropes for years in terms of health and retiree benefit costs are front page news with the first nationwide strike against GM since 1970.
I hope Detroit is not following the dismal post-war history of Britain's auto industry, but the signs are not encouraging.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 4:48 PM | Permalink
September 20, 2007
I read a quote the other day that went something along the lines of "When the facts change, I change my opinion."
Well, the facts about global warming have been changing for some time and it seems to me the message is finally getting through. I mean, when the senior advisor on the environment to this petro-driven administration concurs that CO2 emissions are changing the climate, you know opinions are changing.
And I expect a sea change next year in interest in cars and trucks powered by alternative fuels, mainly clean diesel from Europe and gas/diesel-electric hybrids from Asia and Detroit.
Folks, it's going to happen very fast indeed. Remember when we all smoked and no party or bar was complete without the fug of cigarette smoke. No more. Gone. Heck, I went to university in France in the late 1960s and developed a taste for the deliciously pungent Gauloise cigarettes. There were practically national brands and now they are not even made in France any more!
Plus ca change, plus ca change.
And the word at the current auto show in Frankfurt - one of Europe's biggest - is alternative fuels. This on the cusp of the entrance of the big clean diesels from Germany into the North American market (starting next year).
I have enormous respect for the intelligence and common sense of the average Joe, and the facts of global warming are getting through to all of us. What was once trendy is now becoming a fact of life and most of us now want to do our bit to save ourselves from ourselves.
Buying cars that emit less CO2 makes more than good sense: increasingly, there is little alternative that makes any sense.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 9:39 AM | Permalink
September 12, 2007
Check out my piece on Bentleys this Saturday. The story is pegged to a 1924 3-liter green beauty owned by Dr. Paul Sydlowski of Bristol.
He has restored and tweaked the monster into the kind of racer that dominated European race tracks in the late 1920s, most notably the Le Mans 24-hour Endurance Race which the marque won in 1924, 1927, 1928, 1929 and 1930.
Sydlowski is the kind of collector who not only likes to drive his vintage cars, but to thrash them, as we say in Britain. On a 60-mile jaunt through southern Rhode Island on a recent sunny afternoon, he showed Journal photographer Steve Szydlowski and myself what his car can do when pushed, thundering along at 60-70 mph and taking corners at incredible speeds.
The fact is these cars were built to be fast tourers and then tweaked for the race track. With someone like Sydlowski, a very experienced driver who races his car on tracks and takes it on rallies around the world, at the wheel the car really shows off its stuff.
As he says, he loves the Bentley because it keeps up with modern traffic. No pottering along the road in a Model A at 35 mph for him; that kind of driving he describes as being "a menace to yourself and everyone else."
The mechanical genius behind these gorgeous machines was Walter Owen "W.O." Bentley who developed the engines following work on railroads, motorcycles and airplanes. Indeed, it was his engine that powered the famed Sopwith Camel biplane that fought the German Fokker triplane of Red Baron fame in WWI.
But he is mostly remembered for the fabulous cars his company produced from 1921 to 1931, when the company was bought out by Rolls-Royce.
Happily, Rolls kept the marque alive as the sportier counterpoint to its luxury cars and in 1998 Bentley was acquired by Volkswagen which has revamped the marque, creating some of the finest luxury sports cars in the world.
And VW has even brought the marque back to Le Mans where Bentley interrupted Audi's dominace over the last eight years to win the legendary race in 2003.
As I said, my piece on Sydlowski's 1924 Bentley will run this Saturday. See you there!
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 10:22 AM | Permalink
September 6, 2007
First an apologia: This blog has been pretty haphazard of late. Reason is simple: I have been taking days off to take advantage of the glorious weather with my 5-year-old. Next week I will be back on schedule.
Meanwhile, does anyone out there have a rat rod they would like profiled in the projoCars section?
What's a rat rod? Wikipedia describes a rat rod as "a style of Hot Rod or Custom car that imitates (or exaggerates) the early hot rods of the 40s, 50s, and 60s. It is not to be confused with the somewhat closely related "Traditional" Hot Rod, which is an accurate re-creation or period-correct restoration of a Hot Rod from the same era.
Most Rat Rods appear "unfinished" (whether they actually are or are not), with just the bare essentials to be driven. More recently however, a trend has arisen of making the vehicle appear "unsafe" or "scary", whether the vehicle actually is or not."
So if you have one of these vehicles and want us to profile it, call me at 401-277-7403 or email me at pelsworth@projo.com. Look forward to hearing from you.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 1:13 PM | Permalink
August 24, 2007
DEARBORN — What has changed in the year since Alan R. Mulally left Boeing to be chief executive at Ford?
In a sense, everything and nothing, according to the New York Times' Micheline Maynard.
Since his appointment last September made him the first outsider in recent memory named to run a Detroit auto company, Mr. Mulally has brought discipline to a company known for rivalries and infighting.
An admirer of the development team that created the Taurus sedan, he revived the nameplate, most recently relegated to a rental car. He mortgaged virtually all of Ford’s assets to amass the billions of dollars the company needs for its restructuring, and he has put up for sale Ford’s British luxury nameplates: Jaguar, Land Rover and Aston Martin.
Despite that, Mr. Mulally, who turned 62 this month, has not dispelled concerns about the future of Ford, which Toyota passed this year for second place in the American market.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 9:48 AM | Permalink
August 22, 2007
Recent studies have found that we Americans prefer big vehicles and - manna to the auto manufacturers - small cars are not as safe as big cars.
Duh.
Of course we prefer big vehicles. Gas, after all, is still very cheap in the U.S. Yes, I know it is now hovering around the $3 a gallon mark, but that is less than half the price that it is in Europe. And when you are paying $8 a gallon, you can be sure that you are not going to drive a gas-guzzling SUV.
Why is gas so expensive in Europe? Because the governments tax the heck out of it. Here such a notion is anathema to a large portion of the body politic - in addition to the auto, oil, steel, rubber and plastics industries - and for a very good reason.
Unlike the Northeast and other urban centers - where small cars do make sense - most Americans live surrounded by vast expanses of space unimaginable in Europe. Small, economic cars don't make a lot of sense in Texas, for example, where the Chevy Suburban was always referred to as the state vehicle when I lived down there in the late 1980s.
And many Americans have rural roots they revere and for them a pickup is the only way to go. Many may use their pickups mostly for driving to and from work in the nearest city, but that is beside the point. The vehicles serve an emotional role, as indeed all vehicles do.
So forget about raising taxes on fuel. It is not going to happen and even if it did it would still be a nominal amount compared to European levels.
And so we will continue to have the best of both worlds, being able to afford to run big cars and SUVs and pickup trucks and, as an added bonus, having bought them, be comforted that we are safer in them.
Only two things cast a shadow on this self-indulgent picture: If you think the price we are paying in the Mideast - the lives of our military personnel, the maiming of thousands of others, the same of countless more Iraqis, the billions of dollars to equip our forces and run the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the billions of dollars in aid we grant to Egypt, Israel, Pakistan and others to keep the peace - if you think all that blood and money is ALL about George W. Bush's war on terror and has NOTHING to do with the supply/price of crude oil and the price of gasoline you pay at the pump, then I would like to know the name of your drug dealer because you are obviously getting good stuff.
Personally, I think all that blood and money is a pretty high tax to pay for our cheap gasoline.
And the other shadow is the nebulous business of global warming which, while blindingly obvious to a simpleton like me, remains a debatable propostion in some quarters of our petro-driven administration.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:38 AM | Permalink
August 21, 2007
Recent studies have found that we Americans prefer big vehicles and - manna to the auto manufacturers - small cars are not as safe as big cars.
Duh.
Of course we prefer big vehicles. Gas, after all, is still very cheap in the U.S. Yes, I know it is now hovering around the $3 a gallon mark, but that is less than half the price that it is in Europe. And when you are paying $8 a gallon, you can be sure that you are not going to drive a gas-guzzling SUV.
Why is gas so expensive in Europe? Because the governments tax the heck out of it. Here such a notion is anathema to a large portion of the body politic - in addition to the auto, oil, steel, rubber and plastics industries - and for a very good reason.
Unlike the Northeast and other urban centers - where small cars do make sense - most Americans live surrounded by vast expanses of space unimaginable in Europe. Small, economic cars don't make a lot of sense in Texas, for example, where the Chevy Suburban was always referred to as the state vehicle when I lived down there in the late 1980s.
And many Americans have rural roots they revere and for them a pickup is the only way to go. Many may use their pickups mostly for driving to and from work in the nearest city, but that is beside the point. The vehicles serve an emotional role, as indeed all vehicles do.
So forget about raising taxes on fuel. It is not going to happen and even if it did it would still be a nominal amount compared to European levels.
And so we will continue to have the best of both worlds, being able to afford to run big cars and SUVs and pickup trucks and, as an added bonus, having bought them, be comforted that we are safer in them.
Only two things cast a shadow on this self-indulgent picture: If you think the price we are paying in the Mideast - the lives of our military personnel, the maiming of thousands of others, the same of countless more Iraqis, the billions of dollars to equip our forces and run the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the billions of dollars in aid we grant to Egypt, Israel, Pakistan and others to keep the peace - if you think all that blood and money is ALL about George W. Bush's war on terror and has NOTHING to do with the supply/price of crude oil and the price of gasoline you pay at the pump, then I would like to know the name of your drug dealer because you are obviously getting good stuff.
Personally, I think all that blood and money is a pretty high tax to pay for our cheap gasoline.
And the other shadow is the nebulous business of global warming which, while blindingly obvious to a simpleton like me, remains a debatable propostion in some quarters of our petro-driven administration.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 12:37 PM | Permalink
August 16, 2007
It could be the future of cruising, a muscle car for the 21st Century: A Chevrolet Camaro that could approach 40 m.p.g. on the highway and 30 m.p.g. in the city, according to the Detroit Free Press's Mark Phelan.
It might glide silently through future Woodward Dream Cruises, running on battery power up to 25 m.p.h. but with a beefy V8 engine poised to leap to life for a 0-60 sprint.
This Camaro, wedding Chevrolet's legendary small-block V8 engine to General Motors' advanced new hybrid system, isn't on the drawing board yet, but it is feasible, a knowledgeable GM source told the Free Press. GM has the parts on the shelf to get this dream car cruising. It would combine production-ready hybrid technology that hits the road this fall in some GM vehicles with the celebrated new Camaro that is to go on sale in early 2009.
"The Camaro is Chevrolet and GM's halo car," said Joe Phillippi, principal of AutoTrends Consulting, in Short Hills, N.J. "It projects an image that reflects on the whole corporation. To offer all the performance aspects of a classic Camaro and still be environmentally friendly ... that's a real plus from an image point of view.
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:00 AM | Permalink
August 7, 2007
Yesterday I stated that Chrysler workers and investors must be delighted by the news that former Home Depot CEO Robert Nardelli had been named to head the car company.
I sincerely hope readers understood such a sentiment to be ironic in the extreme. As I noted, Nardelli is most recently remembered for making off with $210 million after getting the travelling scholarship from Home Depot's board.
Translation: Home Depot fired Nardelli for incompetence but he still managed to finagle a disgusting amount of money out of the company.
You know, I have never been able to go to a Home Depot since then without wondering what the folks working the shopfloor in their orange overalls thought about it all.
I never asked anyone - I thought it would be pretty tasteless to ask someone earning $15 a hour or so what they might think of their "leader" making off with all that loot.
And now Chrysler owner Cerberus is downgrading Tom LaSorda and bringing in Nardelli to run the company. The arguments for the move are Nardelli's experience at GE when he cut his teeth and the fact that Cerberus is private and thus he will be able to restructure the company without answering to shareholders.
Like I said, workers must be delighted by that. And given his very mixed reputation on Wall Street, investors must be delighted too. True, his pay is nominal and essentially tied to Chrysler's performance. But for a man of his wealth, that is irrelevant.
More important, perhaps, is the signal Cerberus is sending out by hiring this controversial character. Cerberus may be hard headed about the $210 million he received from Home Depot because the terms of his payout were apparently written into his original contract.
But the message the company is sending is obtuse in the extreme and puts an enormous amount of pressure on Nardelli. Wall Street is already scratching its head, Chrysler rank and file are really displeased and it remains to be seen whether the move has undermined the ranks of senior management. Will LaSorda stay, for example?
Time will tell - but for the time being Nardelli has zero goodwill and Cerberus appears to have laid a major egg. But then Cerberus chairman is Tony Snow - the former Treasury Secretary under President George W. Bush.
And don't get me started on the acuity of that character.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth at 11:07 AM | Permalink
July 20, 2007
What some are calling the most critical contract negotiations ever for the United Auto Workers union and Detroit's automakers open Friday at Chrysler Group headquarters in Auburn Hills, Mich., according to an analysis by USA Today.
It's expected that this contract may revamp how the industry deals with big issues such as wage packages and retiree health care, as well as smaller ones, such as work rules and break times.
Posted by at 9:56 AM | Permalink
July 19, 2007
Here’s your chance to check out the smart car which is in town as part of smart USA’s “street smart” road show, a national tour to introduce the iconic two-seater to U.S. consumers.
Mercedes-Benz’s smart car, which has sold 750,000 models in 36 countries since it was launched in Europe in 1998, is stopping in Warwick today and near Waterplace Park in Providence tomorrow and Saturday.
I took a short test drive in one this morning with smart rep Kia Goddard and found the car fun to drive and comfortable, even on the highway where it more than held its own. It did not feel unsafe – it has a host of safety features – and, Boy, does it attract a crowd.
Top speed is about 90 mph, while fuel consumption is more than 40 miles per gallon. And it is so short - just over 8-3/4 feet long by about 5 feet wide - that it can be parked perpendicular to the sidewalk!
The road show features 4 smart fortwo cars for test-drives on a closed course, a mobile smart exhibit with interactive displays and virtual safety demonstrations and a safety display – safety is the number one question this side of the Atlantic, according to smart reps – featuring the “Tridion cell” (reinforced steel cage), dual and side airbags, electronic stability program and anti-lock brakes.
The display is open today at the Mercedes-Benz dealership at Inskip in Warwick and at 5 Moshassuck Street near Stillman Street and Exchange Street tomorrow, 12 to 8 p.m., and Saturday, 12 to 5 p.m.
- Peter C.T. Elsworth
Posted by at 11:03 AM | Permalink
June 20, 2007
Did you read the news today? Nine firefighters were killed yesterday while battling a blaze in a furniture warehouse in Charleston, SC, the most killed in the course of duty since six died in a fire in Worcester, Mass., in 1999. (Of course, that does not include the hundreds that died in the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York in 2001.)
My newspaper, The Providence Journal, ran headshots of all nine and arranged them as though in a high school graduation album. What was striking to me were the two black faces - firefighters James Drayton and Melven Champaign - among the nine.
To me it was a sign of changing times in the Southeast, home to NASCAR. But of the 47 drivers currently battling it out in the Nextel Cup Series, none are black. Indeed, the last black driver to win a major NASCAR race - Wendell Scott - did it 44 years ago.
On Dec. 1, 1963, Scott won a Grand National (now Nextel Cup) race in Jacksonville, Fla. and remains the only black driver to have won a major race in NASCAR's 58-year history.
You gotta believe that NASCAR, which, like the NFL, has a highly sophisticated marketing arm, is aware of this and would love to have a black star among its drivers. And now that Formula I has its version of Tiger Woods - Brit Lewis Hamilton who, after wins in Montreal and Indianapolis, cemented his lead in the drivers' championship - NASCAR must be green with envy.
NASCAR may have its roots in the southeast, which is traditionally Good Ol' Boy Country, but as the racial roster of felled firefighters from yesterday's tragic fire in South Carolina shows, the South, it is a-changin'.
Posted by at 11:41 AM | Permalink
WHEN IT COMES to corporate average fuel economy standards (CAFE), the Senate's massive energy bill strikes a reasonable position, according to an editorial in the Washington Post.
All cars and light trucks, up to 10,000 pounds, should have a CAFE of 35 miles per gallon by 2020. Each year after that until 2030, CAFE would increase 4 percent over the previous year.
Posted by at 10:27 AM | Permalink
June 12, 2007
This is a daffy thing to mention, but on the Massachusetts Turnpike recently I spotted this truck and the simple message across the back caught my attention.
Butter Eggs Cheese
It reminded me that while we think we live in a whizz-bang age, the delivery of such simple staffs of life go on as they have for centuries. One could almost imagine a cart with exactly the same message plodding along one of the country lanes of Thomas Hardy's beloved Dorset in southern England over 100 years ago - or another cart and another horse plodding along a lane somewhere in Rhode Island or Massachusetts or France or wherever 200, 300 years ago.
The daily round does not change and I remember a similar feeling when I used to commute from Jamestown to Boston in the early morning hours (I had to report to work at 3:30 a.m.) and the roads being empty save for the food trucks - bread and groceries - which were making their daily deliveries.
So, here's to you Mr N. Winer & Son Inc. for reminding me that the pace of modern life is often only in our heads. Hardy, after all, had his own madding crowd.
Posted by at 12:13 PM | Permalink
So there I was driving to the Eric Carle Museum of Picture Book Art in Amherst, Mass., the other day when what should I come across on the Mass. Pike but a GMC Futureliner. Here was the first view:
Then I raced ahead, stopped by the side of the road and shot it from in front - getting a good honk from the driver as he passed:
A total of 12 of these fabulous looking vehicles were made in 1939 and they were used to travel around the country displaying the latest wonders from Detroit. Nine survive and this one was clearly keeping up with the traffic (a bit slow on the hills) on a sunny June day in Massachusetts.
There are many Web sites about the Futureliners. Here is one.
Posted by at 10:49 AM | Permalink
June 6, 2007
If you ever wanted to know what it's like to be in the middle of a pack of high-speed cars on a NASCAR oval, a very cheap way of finding out is to get onto I-95 in Connecticut, down toward the New York area, and wait.
You may be cruising along at a respectable 70 mph - 5 mph over the speed limit - along with everyone else, but it is only a matter of time before a car, usually driven by a young driver, sweeps past you at 90, 100, sometimes over 100 mph.
Listen, I know my time will come but if I am taken out by some little jerk playing NASCAR on the public highways, I am going to be extremely cross.
Give me an effing break.
These NASCARettes overtake you on either side, sometimes even at an angle as they weave their way through the traffic. You see them coming up behind and the only thing to do is to maintain course and speed. Trying to get out of their way could easily result in an accident because they are travelling too fast to adapt to 'moving' objects; at their speed, the rest of us are stationary objects to navigate around.
On my return from the Greenwich Concours d'Elegance on Sunday, a number of these young heroes flashed passed me but one whipped by on the inside lane so fast that my car - and it's a heavy Volvo station wagon - literally shook.
What can the police do? I presume most of the young speedsters are armed with radar detectors and so are practically immune from being stopped. Plus a police chase with one of these drivers in heavy traffic could easily lead to increased danger for all concerned.
Maybe the only alternative is having the public call in the license plates of drivers they consider to be particularly dangerous. But what can the police do then? I don't know, but its sounds like it may be worthwhile to find out.
Hoping that they will drive themselves off the road and into the oval in the sky may nurse a sense of outrage but is not a practical solution to a public menace.
Posted by at 10:29 AM | Permalink
June 4, 2007
A 1938 Bugatti Type 57C Atalante coupé that had been sitting untrouched in a garage outside New York City for 45 years sold yesterday for $852,500 (including Christie's 10 percent buyer's premium) at a Christie's auction at the Greenwich Concours d'Elegance in Greenwich, Conn.
The price was way over the auction house's estimate of $300,000 to $400,000 but as auctioneer Hugh Edmeades told me afterwards, there is no way to really value a car this rare and in such orginal condition. "They find their own level," he said.
The bidding for the car ended in a bullfight between noted restorer Wayne Carini of F40 Motor Sports in Portland, Conn., who was bidding on behalf of Connecticut contractor Joe Capasso and an unidentified telephone bidder.
As the levels went higher, the two bidders did everything they could to knock the other out. Sometimes they came back immediately with a price, sometimes they mulled and then delivered a steep increase in an attempt to deliver a killing blow. At times the crowd gasped and applauded following long gaps and sudden hits; at other times you could have heard a pin drop. Certainly Edmeades did not need to work the kind of auctioneer's magic he had used earlier to push the bidding higher.
But what am I doing - giving away a fabulous story that will appear in Wednesday's projoCARS section? Be sure to read it as one of the issues I will be addressing is the restoring vs conserving and preserving argument that this sale highlighted. Plus details of some of the other beauties that were sold and some of the flavor of this tony and amusing event.
Posted by at 10:36 AM | Permalink
